Should central banks set policy in a different way if they are more uncertain about the economic outlook?
The FED seems set to stay on hold for the foreseeable future but most other G10 central banks should continue to ease.
With labour markets quite tight in G10 countries central bankers are being forced to consider the supply potential of the economy just as much as the demand for goods...
The higher-than-expected US CPI data for January may cause FED to slow its rate cuts in 2025.
The FED could see plenty more evidence of rising inflation expectations before considering action amid Trump’s tariffs.
US tariffs leave the Fed – and the bond market – in a quandary. They act like a supply shock, producing lower growth and higher inflation. The question is which will...
A degree of divergence seems likely to creep into G10 monetary policy as the Fed pauses while those that have been easing carry on, and those that have not started to...
Many analysts predicted that if Trump implements his tariff pledges following his inauguration on January 20, 2025, gold prices would spike higher.
Bond yields are continuing to charge higher. While this is likely to reverse over the long haul, the long haul is not here yet.
Central bankers might have more to think about their monetary policy, because the Fed is pausing and the US dollar is surging.
Longer-term bond yields are expected to increase further, spurred by higher treasury yields. Over the longer-term yields are seen falling back, but only once the...
US Federal debt owned by the public has risen to just about equal the nation’s GDP having been only around a third of GDP just before the 2008 financial crisis.
Many economists predicted that the USD/VND exchange rate would still be under a lot of pressure in 2025, with President-elect Donald Trump's tariff policies posing the...
While it is very possible that 2025 pans out the way that most expect, the room for leftfield events to upset the status quo appears elevated. In what follows we outline...
VN-Index is in a sideways up accumulation trend. Trading with thin profit margins continues to be recommended until the new trend is confirmed.
Analysts predicted that if President-elect Donald Trump's tariff and trade pledges would be carried out, the FED's rate decreases may be slowed down, which would cause...
There is currently a lot of focus on the risk that the incoming Trump administration in the US will pursue policies that lift inflation and so limit the room for Fed...
In many respects, the US seems to be in a perfect place: growth is robust, the economy is at full employment, and inflation is easing down to the Fed’s target.
When the FED launched itself into its easing cycle with a large 50-bps rate cut in September, it left many surprised, including ourselves.
The Fed is not the only central bank that has faced difficulties as a result of Donald Trump's victory.
Donald Trump’s victory could strongly impact the FED monetary policy, US dollar and tariffs on imports to the US.
Now clearly many financial assets are priced to anticipate a more volatile time ahead.
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