2024 is expected to be a year in which major central banks fail to reach their (mostly) 2% inflation target, but cut rates nonetheless. There’s nothing controversial in...
Many analysts projected that gold prices would rise considerably in 2024, reaching a new high, especially if the Federal Reserve cut interest rates.
Perhaps understandably, there’s been what might be called ‘rate-cut-creep’ in the markets as it seems that both analysts and market pricing have inched forward the...
Investors want to buy assets ahead of a possible surge in prices as they know that the last two easing cycles have created what many describe as “everything bubbles”.
Trust in the Fed Chair is the lowest it has ever been according to Gallup and if you think that this is only a problem in the US, just look at the UK where politicians...
It seems that developed-country central banks have finished their tightening cycle, with the exception of the BoJ which has yet to start. But those banks meeting this...
Forecasts for a weaker US dollar through 2024 rest heavily not just on the Fed starting an easing cycle, but also that this cycle either causes, or is consistent with, a...
A much sharper than expected fall in euro zone inflation data for November weighed on the euro. However, we see two reasons why falling inflation won’t weaken the euro...
It is probably a common narrative in the market that, just as the dollar rose with the increase in US policy rates, so the dollar will fall as rates are cut.
Some central bankers continue to stress that monetary policy has to stay restrictive for a considerable period of time.
The Standard Bank has argued before, and continue to believe, that the decisive break, when it comes, will be the high side and that euro/dollar will rise to the 1.20...
The big central banks in Europe – the ECB and Bank of England – will start to cut rates before the Fed. But that’s not what is being priced in by the market, according...
The reference exchange rate between the Vietnamese đồng and the US dollar announced by the State Bank of Việt Nam (SBV) at the last trading session of last week...
In the backdrop of global inflation slowing, and assuming no major disruptions, particularly in the fourth quarter, Vietnam is likely to maintain its positive trend...
Just recently we’ve heard a number of officials, often from central banks, argue to the effect that defeating inflation with higher rates is more like a marathon than a...
There will always be some in the market eager to front-run what they feel will be a significant fall in the US dollar as the Fed gets into an easing cycle.
At the moment, it seems that the Fed is expected to start the easing cycle, at least in terms of rate cuts, before major European central banks such as the ECB and BoE.
At the start of this year, many analysts expected euro/dollar would trade up from its opening level of 1.06 to around 1.10 in mid-year and then on to 1.15 by the...
What is clearly far more uncertain is the level of the “new normal” for inflation and rates.
Momentum remains with the US dollar, and, while we do not see this as the long-term outlook, it is hard to argue against more strength in the short term.
The USD/VND has risen over the past time. Until mid-September 2023, the VND is currently depreciating 2.5% YTD against the USD.
G10 FX volatility remains low with implied one-month euro/dollar volatility below 7% right now, or around a half of the level that we were seeing a year ago.
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