At the moment, it seems that the Fed is expected to start the easing cycle, at least in terms of rate cuts, before major European central banks such as the ECB and BoE.
At the start of this year, many analysts expected euro/dollar would trade up from its opening level of 1.06 to around 1.10 in mid-year and then on to 1.15 by the...
What is clearly far more uncertain is the level of the “new normal” for inflation and rates.
Momentum remains with the US dollar, and, while we do not see this as the long-term outlook, it is hard to argue against more strength in the short term.
The USD/VND has risen over the past time. Until mid-September 2023, the VND is currently depreciating 2.5% YTD against the USD.
G10 FX volatility remains low with implied one-month euro/dollar volatility below 7% right now, or around a half of the level that we were seeing a year ago.
While the Fed has been focused on fighting inflation, Vietnam needs to boost GDP growth. If we haven't accomplished this aim yet, monetary policy must remain...
The ECB seemed to send out a clear message last week that policy rates won’t rise again if the economy develops as the bank expects.
Are central banks starting an easing cycle well ahead of major central banks such as the Fed and ECB taking a risk with their currencies? The recent slump in the Polish...
FED Chairman Powell seems to be suggesting that a high terminal fed funds rate will be anything but transitory.
Gold prices may continue to correct and consolidate next week, allowing investors to evaluate investing possibilities if the gold price falls below $1,900/oz.
The prospect of rate cuts will come into view around the spring or summer of 2024, in the Standard Bank’s opinion.
While Vietnam isn't suffering inflationary pressures like other countries, the exchange rate requires caution.
The USD/VND rate remains under strong pressure towards the end of this year as a result of the contrasting monetary policies of the United States and Vietnam, while the...
Longer-term government bond yields have been rising in developed countries, notably the US, and that’s despite falling inflation and expectations that central banks are...
For some central banks, the interest rate cutting cycle has begun. But with the Fed widely seen to be some nine months to a year away from its first cut, does this mean...
The USD/VND exchange rate may be more volatile in 2H23. It might, however, change by no more than +/- 2.0% from the beginning of 2023.
Central banks are thought to be in the home stretch when it comes to policy tightening.
Is there a case for the “soft-landing” scenario coming true in 2023 and that financial market assets will therefore continue the rally that we have seen so far this...
There has been much made of the fact that sharp rate hikes from just about all G10 central banks have not led to the depth of economic slowdown that was feared.
Since the US CPI fell significantly in June, the FED might only raise interest rates once more.
Inflation fell to its lowest annual rate in more than two years in June, prompting the Federal Reserve to halt hiking interest rates after its July meeting, boosting the...
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