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02/12/2024, 11:37

Limited room for Fed easing

There is currently a lot of focus on the risk that the incoming Trump administration in the US will pursue policies that lift inflation and so limit the room for Fed...

by Admin
30/10/2024, 11:43

The BoE's position may conflict with the Fed's

While the Fed may decide whether to accommodate Trump-led fiscal largesse, the BoE will have to determine whether to accommodate tighter fiscal policy in the UK by...

by Admin
15/10/2024, 11:02

What will drive the US dollar in the short term?

Although much of the focus within the foreign exchange market remains locked on central bank policy easing, politics and geopolitics seem more likely to take the driving...

by Admin
14/10/2024, 11:10

Many central banks: Reactive, not proactive

We have spoken many times about how central banks, and particularly the Fed, seem to be basing policy on a more reactive response to the course of data than a proactive...

by Admin
11/10/2024, 11:09

Is it time to own bonds?

Owning bonds in an easing cycle seems like an obvious trade – and usually the right one. It is unlikely to be any different this time. But timing is important and so too...

by Admin
02/10/2024, 11:10

Why has the US dollar been so stable?

The US dollar has been in what might be called a ‘holding pattern’ for the past couple of years. But it is close to the bottom of the range now and the question is...

by Admin
30/09/2024, 11:38

What prospects for riskier assets?

In many senses it seems hard to envisage a better scenario for riskier assets than the one we have right now but, as always, there are factors that could upset this...

by Admin
27/09/2024, 11:00

Expectations for a fresh boost to the pound

Markets will be as understanding if new UK Chancellor Rachael Reeves Gerrymanders the fiscal rules to give her more room to pump up investment in next month’s budget.

by Admin
25/09/2024, 11:11

What is the FED’s inflation target?

If you said 2%, we’d argue that you are wrong. It seems to us that it is above 2% although, just how far above is hard to say.

by Admin
24/09/2024, 11:17

The US dollar's downside might be contained

The US dollar has been pressurised by the Federal Reserve’s large 50-bps rate cut last week, but the downside for the greenback is likely to be limit  ed ahead of...

by Admin
23/09/2024, 11:12

Fed rate cuts put the US dollar at more risk

While the Fed rate cut has no surprise, the size of the reduction was larger than expected, and the Fed’s explanation for the larger-than-anticipated rate cut was...

by Admin
19/09/2024, 11:09

FED will still fall behind the curve?

Even 50-bps rate cut today also leaves the Fed behind the curve, it can catch up with aggressive easing in the future if it needs to.

by Admin
18/09/2024, 11:17

Will another carry-trade episode emerge?

The BoJ almost certainly won’t hike rates again this week, but this need not necessarily rule out another painful carry-trade unwind.

by Admin