There’s little doubting that the US could get off to a strong economic start in 2026 thanks to fiscal factors.
The US dollar's previous strength, which was predicated on "exceptionalism" in the US financial and economic markets, ended in 2025. Even while this kind of...
The US economy has not slumped under the weight of tariffs; inflation has not risen materially, and financial asset prices have performed very well. But look under the...
The September US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report might have a big influence on Fed rate cuts and gold prices next week.
According to Sahm rules, the US recession has begun when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rises by 0.5% points or more above the lowest point for the...
The US economy and its financial assets have benefited from so-called ‘exceptionalism’ for a number of years – up to this year when growth and stock performance started...
The Fed has not cut rates so far this year but FOMC members forecast two rate cuts in 2025 at their June meeting and the market is priced for two cuts as well.
The US dollar continues to recover modestly after the plunge seen so far this year but many analysts doubt the rebound will last too long or get too far.
There seems to be a huge amount of focus right now on the status of the US dollar. Concerns are growing that the greenback may see its status decline in areas such as...
Are countries with healthy trade surpluses stronger than those that run continual deficits?
It has been said in the past that when the US sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold. The large size of the US economy and its dominance in global financing are...
Standard Bank’s longer-term call for euro/US dollar has been for the euro to steadily rise over time and we have talked about the 1.20-1.30 range as a target over the...
President Trump was elected on a mandate to make America great again. It is possible that his program of tariffs, tax cuts, deportations, gutting the government and more...
In many respects, the US seems to be in a perfect place: growth is robust, the economy is at full employment, and inflation is easing down to the Fed’s target.
Many financial markets have got themselves into a flap recently over the possibility of a US recession.
Turmoil in risky assets such as equities might have been sparked by concerns about the US economy but, in reality, we think that the rapid unwinding of yen-funded trades...
Seafood exports for June 2024 are estimated to have reached $875 million, marking a 14% increase compared to the same period last year and the highest monthly export...
In the Standard Bank’s view, and probably the view of everybody else, there are two main scenarios for the path of the US economy and Fed policy.
The global economy has defied a hard landing in 2023. As 2024 unfolds, a new but more complex economic landscape is taking shape.
The US economy is streets ahead of its peers, but the US dollar is not. Does this mean that there’s something wrong with the US dollar?
US consumers spent at a rip-roaring pace in Q3 but, by some measures, consumer confidence is at levels consistent with recession. What’s going on?
It is interesting that the US economy has just grown by close to 5% in annualised terms in Q3 and yet there’s a good deal of talk that recession is imminent. That might...
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