The pivot point of cash flows in the Vietnamese stock market

According to experts, the positive performance of the VN-Index in the first weeks of 2026, together with the broadening of capital flows across sectors and accumulation strategies by market makers, is opening up a new growth cycle—more cautious, yet more sustainable—for the equity market.

Multiple Positive Factors Converge

According to economist Nguyen Duy Dinh, within just the first three weeks of 2026, the VN-Index surged by around 140 points. From a short-term perspective, this could be viewed as a rapid upswing; however, from the vantage point of fund managers, the rally serves as confirmation of a broader trend. More importantly, capital flows are no longer concentrated in a handful of large-capitalization stocks but have become far more widely distributed.

Specifically, stocks affiliated with the Viettel group recorded gains of up to 70%, playing a leading role in shaping market sentiment while also showing signs of strong speculative inflows—making them suitable for partial profit-taking strategies. Oil and gas stocks rose by around 34%, reflecting a cyclical recovery after a prolonged period of stagnation and are recommended to be held with a positive outlook. Industrial park real estate stocks gained approximately 24%, standing out due to their direct benefits from Decree 20/2026/ND-CP and the ongoing shift in FDI inflows, and are therefore viewed as a sector warranting increased portfolio allocation.

Meanwhile, textiles and chemicals posted strong gains alongside the recovery in manufacturing, though additional time is needed to assess the durability of this trend. Banking stocks maintained steady growth, continuing to serve as the “backbone” of the market—both driving the index and ensuring overall market stability.

Notably, overall market liquidity declined from a peak of VND 42–43 trillion to around VND 28–30 trillion. However, this decline is not seen as a negative signal. On the contrary, it is regarded as a “strategic pause,” allowing the market to cool after a period of excessive exuberance. The adjustment in liquidity enables market makers to re-accumulate stocks at new price bases, preparing for the next leg up—one driven more by corporate fundamentals and earnings expectations rather than short-term speculative capital.

“The deeper driver behind these developments lies in a structural shift in capital flows at the macro level. In 2025, credit growth to the real estate sector reached as high as 28.4%, prompting regulators to impose tighter controls, including caps that limit real estate credit growth to no more than the banking system’s average. This policy acted as a sharp brake on speculative projects while accelerating market differentiation. Capital has begun to flow out of purely commercial real estate and into more liquid channels, particularly the stock market.

In addition, the anticipated passage of the Property Tax Law—focusing on taxing second and third properties—has further increased pressure on real estate speculators. It is estimated that if just around 10% of assets from the real estate channel were to shift into equities, it would already generate an enormous influx of capital. This flow would not only improve liquidity but could also drive a market-wide re-rating of P/E multiples, positioning the stock market as one of the key growth engines of Viet Nam’s economy in 2026,” Mr. Dinh explained.

Building a Strategic Portfolio

Regarding strategic portfolio construction for 2026, Nguyen Duy Dinh recommends that investors anchor their allocations around profit “engines” tied to the real economic cycle. Within real estate and industrial park real estate, KDH is favored, with a 2026 profit plan of up to VND 2 trillion—double that of 2025. Its focus on genuine housing demand makes the company largely immune to speculative credit tightening shocks.

Stocks such as GVR, KBC, and SZC also stand out thanks to their large industrial land banks—particularly GVR, which is 97% state-owned and undergoing a land-use conversion roadmap, directly benefiting from policy support and the expansion of the private-sector economy. Meanwhile, CII and CEO are viewed as “long-term positioning” investments in Thu Thiem and Phu Quoc, where value is expected to be unlocked gradually as infrastructure is completed.

In manufacturing and infrastructure, HPG is no longer seen merely as a steel producer but increasingly as a critical link in national infrastructure development. With the North–South high-speed railway project, HPG has the potential to become a key supplier of rail steel and infrastructure components.

VCG represents a notable example of value transformation through M&A and land monetization strategies. After generating around VND 3.3 trillion from the Amatina project, its acquisition of Thuong Dinh Footwear to unlock prime land assets reflects a long-term vision—particularly given the company’s P/E valuation of just around 3.8 times, exceptionally low for a major infrastructure firm.

In the banking and financial sector, growth narratives are more selective and tied to specific value-unlocking events. STB is expected to benefit from the auction of a 32.5% stake linked to Tram Be, potentially enabling the recognition of one-off profit gains.

In the securities sector, VPX has emerged as a noteworthy case, with its parent company investing around VND 1 trillion in IPOs at discounted prices, signaling ambitions to enter the top five brokerage market share. For state-owned banks such as VCB, BID, and CTG, the appropriate strategy is to patiently wait for sharp market corrections rather than chasing prices at elevated levels.

Another strategic highlight is high-tech agriculture, exemplified by HAG. The company has completed its loss-elimination cycle and entered a harvesting phase, with a profit model of around VND 4 trillion from durian, bananas, and coffee, amid sharply reduced financial costs. In particular, its 1,500-hectare mulberry project creates vertical integration, supplying self-sufficient raw materials for the textile industry and aligning with the economy’s sustainable development orientation.

“From an investment strategy perspective, 2026 requires flexibility in liquidity management. Holding cash during periods of market exuberance does not mean missing opportunities; rather, it is a way to prepare resources for portfolio restructuring at technical shake-out points.

The principle of ‘the higher the market goes, the lower the allocation’ should be strictly observed, alongside a rotation away from overheated sectors toward stocks undergoing long-term accumulation. More importantly, investors must maintain ethical discipline, partnering only with companies and market makers that demonstrate transparent governance foundations,” the expert advised.

Thus, in 2026, as large capital flows complete their reallocation and re-pricing process, long-term-oriented investors are likely to be the primary beneficiaries of the market’s next explosive cycle.