Vietnam - US $90b trade agreement: Which sectors will benefit?

The signing ceremony between Vietnamese and U.S. businesses took place during the working visit of the Prime Minister’s Special Envoy, Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyễn Hồng Diên, who met with the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), the Department of Energy (DOE), and other relevant agencies.

On March 13, companies from Vietnam and the United States signed contracts totaling $4.15 billion to further enhance their bilateral economic, trade, and investment cooperation. Major oil and energy companies that are listed on the stock market were among the Vietnamese participants, including Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical Company (BSR), PetroVietnam Power Corporation (PVPower, POW), Vietnam National Petroleum Group (Petrolimex, PLX), and PetroVietnam Gas Corporation (PVGas, GAS).

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the total economic and trade agreements signed between Vietnamese and U.S. enterprises, set to be implemented from 2025 onward, amount to approximately $90.3 billion. These agreements are expected to create hundreds of thousands of jobs in both countries.

Investors reacted positively to this news, with POW experiencing a trading volume surge to 21.4 million shares, nearly 6 million units on the buy side, and its market price hitting the daily price ceiling. Energy and oil stocks also saw gains, with BSR up 3.11%, PVD rising 1.74%, and some stocks like MDC and ITS reaching their upper limit. Other stocks such as PVD, PVC, and POS all increased, while gas-related stocks like GAS and CNG also saw gains. PLX rose slightly by 0.6%.

Vietnam's Trade Surplus with the U.S. and Sectoral Impacts

In 2024, Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. reached $142.47 billion, mainly concentrated in four key product categories:

• Electronic machinery and equipment: $71.77 billion
• Furniture, lighting, and other consumer goods: $18.16 billion
• Textiles: $16.6 billion
• Footwear and headwear: $9.69 billion

Vietnam currently enjoys a trade surplus with the U.S. in several key industries, benefiting from FDI inflows, particularly in electronic machinery and equipment.

Conversely, Vietnam imported $13.3 billion worth of goods from the U.S. in 2024, focusing on:

• Electronic machinery and equipment: $4.6 billion
• Fruits and vegetables: $1.37 billion
• Chemicals: $1.1 billion
• Processed food: $1 billion

Recently, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on countries with high trade surpluses with the U.S., including Mexico, Canada, and China. Vietnam is also among the top five countries with which the U.S. has a significant trade deficit. To mitigate the risk of Vietnam becoming a tariff target, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has proactively signed a $90 billion trade cooperation agreement with the U.S.

This move to reduce the bilateral trade deficit has been highly anticipated by businesses, as concerns over potential tariffs on Vietnamese goods have been growing. To counterbalance the trade deficit, Vietnam is expected to increase imports of high-value U.S. goods such as liquefied natural gas (LNG), petroleum, and aircraft. Experts from VinaCapital, Dragon Capital, UOB (Singapore), and Maybank IBG (Malaysia) have recommended this proactive strategy to maintain Vietnam's favorable trade position.

Vietnam may need to import more goods from the U.S. to reduce its trade surplus, according to Trần Hoàng Sơn, Chief Market Strategist at VPBank Securities (VPBankS). Regarding the recently signed $90 billion trade agreement, he noted that an estimated $50.15 billion could be implemented starting in 2025, focusing on industries such as aviation, oil and gas extraction, and petrochemical products.

The largest agreement is likely related to oil and gas, particularly LNG imports, which could be a key strategic product for Vietnam in managing its trade balance with the U.S. Companies such as GAS may sign deals with ConocoPhillips or Excelerate.

The aviation and high-tech industry, which includes aircraft engines, spare parts, and maintenance services, is the second key emphasis. It is anticipated that businesses like VietJet Air (VJC) would sign contracts with American behemoths like GE Aviation.

It is expected that BSR and Kellogg Brown & Root (KBR) would work together to provide emissions-compliant, eco-friendly aviation fuel solutions for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Vietnam's industrial transformation might also be aided by an increase in U.S. machinery and equipment imports.

Which Sectors Will Benefit the Most?

Among the four major trade sectors, LNG and aviation-related imports are expected to have the largest scale of implementation. Companies like GAS and VJC, which have existing collaborations with U.S. firms, are expected to gain the most. However, Vietnam's biggest benefit from this trade strategy is avoiding potential U.S. tariffs, which could negatively impact its exports.

Nonetheless, Sơn also pointed out that while Mexico, Canada, and China face increased tariffs, Vietnamese goods could become more competitive in the U.S. market, creating greater export opportunities. This is part of a broader national strategy rather than a specific sectoral benefit.

A market expert noted that beyond companies directly involved in these major trade agreements, related businesses in the supply chain could also benefit. Additionally, expanding cooperation agreements could lead to indirect gains for other industries within the same ecosystem as the primary trade partners.

“When significant trade agreements are signed, they often facilitate broader capital flows and commercial transactions, benefiting not only the companies directly involved but also multiple stakeholders within the industry,” the expert concluded.