What outlook for VN-Index in the short term?

The VN-Index dropped early in the session yesterday, rebounded to around 1,302 points and closed in the red, down 0.4% at 1,296.3 points. However, market liquidity increased 2.9% DoD to VND21.4tn (USD825.7mn). The HNX Index followed a similar pattern, declining 0.7% to close at 217.2.

Most sectors were in the red yesterday, led by Technology (-2.2%), Telecommunication (-2.2%), Financial Services (-1.7%) and Oil & Gas (- 1.6%). In contrast, sectors such as Real Estate (2.3%) and Construction & Materials (0.2%) increased.

VinSpeed High-Speed Railway Investment and Development JSC — part of the VIC (7.0%) ecosystem and a company established just over 10 days ago — has proposed investing in the North–South high-speed railway project, with a total estimated cost of around USD67bn, equivalent to 14% of Vietnam’s GDP at the end of 2024. The company aims to commence construction before December 2026 and fully operate the entire line by December 2030.

KBC (3.5%), in partnership with the Trump Organization, is exploring plans to develop a Trump Tower in Ho Chi Minh City’s Thu Thiem area. Eric Trump is expected to visit this week to inspect the site and meet with local officials. This follows a recently approved USD1.5bn urban and tourism complex in Hung Yen, also involving KBC and the Trump Organization, as Vietnam seeks to strengthen US ties amid ongoing trade negotiations.

Top performers today included VIC (7.0%), GEE (7.0%) and VHM (1.4%), while top laggards included VPL (-2.8%), FPT (-2.3%) and VCB (-0.9%). Foreign investors net sold today, with a total net selling value of VND475bn (USD18.3mn). Foreigners sold VHM (VND938bn, USD36.2mn), GEX (VND125.8bn, USD4.9mn), and MSN (VND115bn, USD4.4mn). On the contrary, buying momentum focused on VIC (VND173.9bn, USD6.7mn), MBB (VND148.4bn, USD5.7mn), and CTG (VND83.8bn, USD3.2mn).

Real Estate (3.0%), Health Care (1.1%), and Industrials (0.2%) rose, while IT (-2.3%), Energy (-1.6%), and Materials (-1.1%) lost ground today. Top index movers included VIC (7.0%), VHM (1.4%), GEE (7.0%), VPB (0.8%), and KBC (3.5%). Top index laggards consisted of LPB (-10.4%), VCB (-0.9%), FPT (-2.3%), BID (-1.1%), and GAS (-1.8%).

In the trading session today, the VN-Index easily regained 1,300 and approached 1,310 after more than 1 hour of trading thanks to strong support from Vingroup stocks, with VRE, VHM, VIC leading the increase and far surpassing the rest of the bluechips, in which VIC and VHM increased to the ceiling, contributing nearly 10 points.

Aseansc said in the neutral scenario, demand would be expected to increase again when the VN-Index returns to the support zone of 1,280 - 1,290 points. However, if this support is broken, the VN-Index is likely to fall to 1,260 - 1,270 points. Therefore, this securities company believes that the best action at this time is for short-term investors to limit chasing purchases, closely monitor the tariff situation, and consider the weak stock structure in their portfolio.

“Long-term investors can consider gradually disbursing in volatile sessions, focusing on stocks that are not much affected by the US tariffs, benefit from economic recovery, growing business results, attractive valuations, and high cash dividends, and prioritizing banking, securities, public investment, and retail stocks”, said Aseansc.

According to SHS, the VN-Index has recovered from the price range of 1,080 - 1,130 points to the price range of 1,320 points, the highest price in March 2025, the time before the tax was imposed. Therefore, the short-term selling pressure is inevitable. The short-term trend of the VN-Index is still unclear. However, after a strong recovery, the VN-Index has been under selling pressure at the old peak of March 2025. In the short term, if the VN-Index fails to maintain 1,300 points, it will be under pressure to correct and retest 1,270 points.