Which bank stocks will accelerate in the coming period?

According to MBS, monitored banks' after-tax profits will increase by 11.1% on a quarterly basis and 14.5% on an annual basis in Q4 2024. NIM is anticipated to slightly drop in Q4 2024, even though credit growth is predicted to surpass that of Q3 2024. Since non-interest activity continued to stagnate in Q3 2024, non-interest revenue is expected to decline. Because of the high comparative base from late last year, provisioning expenses are expected to increase by 1.4% year over year and by 1.4% from the prior quarter.

Because of last year's low base due to heavy provisioning, MBS anticipates that TPB and VPB will report the most spectacular profit increase among the banks under its supervision. It is anticipated that two major banks, CTG and TCB, will grow more rapidly than their counterparts of comparable size. By exploiting the low base from the previous year, which was impacted by significant provisioning, VPB is expected to generate impressive profit growth.

MBS forecasts 4.5% loan growth for CTG in Q4 2024, while NIM will drop to 2.8%. Following a large amount of provisioning in the first nine months of 2024, provisioning expenses are anticipated to decrease by 12.5% YoY and 33% QoQ. It is anticipated that non-interest income would continue to expand from the first nine months. According to MBS, CTG's profit is expected to climb by 20% in Q4 2024 and by 14% in the entire year.

For VPB, Q4/2024 profit growth is forecasted at 108%, with a full-year increase of 77%. Credit is projected to grow by about 8% year-to-date, while NIM is maintained at 6% in the final quarter. Provisioning expenses in the quarter are expected to decrease by 11% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter. FE Credit is estimated to contribute approximately VND 200 billion in pre-tax profit in Q4/2024.

For TPB, MBS projects a 172% profit gain for TPB in Q4 2024, mostly as a result of the low base from the previous year (TPB greatly boosted provisioning in Q4 2023). It is anticipated that credit growth will increase by 4.5% from Q3 2024, while NIM will slightly improve. NIM for the entire year 2024 is expected to be 3.82%, while bad debts are expected to increase by 29 basis points to 2.04%.

For TCB, MBS projects Q4/2024 profit growth of 14% and a full-year increase of 24%. NIM is expected to remain consistent with the first nine months at 4.4%. Credit growth is forecasted at 5-6%. Q4/2024 provisioning expenses are projected to rise by 25% year-on-year to better manage bad debts amid growing retail credit. Non-interest income is expected to decelerate compared to the first nine months, primarily driven by debt resolution activities.

According to its sector research, VCBS has a very optimistic forecast for banking stocks in 2025. At the moment, private banks that lend a lot to construction and real estate companies have grown more favorably than the industry average. Manufacturing, import-export companies, and personal consumption and investment requirements are the main causes of the year-end increase in loan demand. With many banks still not using their whole credit growth quotas allotted by the State Bank of Vietnam, system-wide credit capacity is still abundant. In order to attain strong credit growth rates in 2024, dynamic private banks like TCB, MBB, MSB, and TPB—which are able to increase credit up to 80% of their targets—may see additional credit limit extensions in late November.

The banking system recorded a CASA ratio of 20.3%. In 2024, the CASA ratio hovered around 20%, recovering from a low of 17.6%, thanks to rapidly declining term deposit rates and increased cash reserves for business operations and investment needs as gold and real estate markets become more active, according to VCBS.

Banks with extensive customer bases and frequent transactions, supported by robust networks, digitization, and ecosystem synergies (e.g., VCB, MBB, TCB, MSB, CTG), will continue to sustain abundant capital mobilization and the advantage of low funding costs. VCBS predicts the sector’s CASA ratio to maintain its growth momentum in 2025, driven by low interest rates, a warming economy, improving financial health of businesses and individuals, and recovery in asset investment markets.

According to VCBS, listed banks will continue to grow at a rate of 12–15% in 2024, with varying profit outlooks. In 2025, profit growth is projected to be around 15%, with dynamic private banks predicted to recover quickly. Because the sector's P/B valuation is currently around 9% lower than the five-year average, banking stocks are therefore considered to be fairly valued for investing. Banks with good asset quality and better growth than the sector, like ACB, CTG, HDB, MBB, MSB, STB, TCB, and VIB, are stocks that are worth looking into for long-term investment.