Will the VN-Index test the 1,700-point threshold?

If liquidity remains strong and investors refrain from heavy selling amid high margin debt pressure, the VN-Index could consolidate its recovery around the 1,600-point psychological support and attempt to retest the 1,700-point zone—its August–September 2025 highs and current 20-day moving average.

Market Rebounds Amid Margin Pressure

During the rebound session on October 21, attention turned to securities firms’ margin lending balances, which reached VND 384 trillion at the end of Q3—equivalent to about 4.3% of total market capitalization.

According to SHS Securities, this marks a record high and partially explains the heavy selling seen late in the previous session. The ratio of margin debt to market cap is also elevated compared with global markets, highlighting the high-leverage nature of individual investors in Viet Nam.

SHS noted that investors focusing on blue-chip or VN30 stocks can better hedge against volatility from margin pressure, as institutional investors have already employed derivative hedging strategies. With the VN100 futures contract now active and gaining liquidity, large-cap VN100 stocks are expected to offer better risk management and attract more investor allocation.

On October 21, foreign investors net bought nearly VND 2.4 trillion on HoSE, led by purchases of FPT—which reported strong nine-month results—and SSI, with net inflows of VND 444 billion.

SSI Securities (HoSE: SSI) posted standalone Q3 revenue of VND 4.1 trillion and pre-tax profit (PBT) of VND 1.78 trillion. On a consolidated basis, revenue reached VND 4.21 trillion and PBT VND 1.83 trillion. For the first nine months of 2025, SSI achieved VND 9.43 trillion in revenue and VND 4.07 trillion in PBT, fulfilling 97% and 96% of its annual targets, respectively.

As of September 30, 2025, the parent company’s total assets stood at VND 99.7 trillion and equity at VND 30.3 trillion—up 37.4% and 16.7% from end-2024. Return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) for the trailing four quarters reached 12.7% and 4.1%, respectively.

Breaking down its Q3 performance, SSI’s brokerage services contributed VND 1.95 trillion (47% of revenue). Brokerage, custody, and advisory services brought in VND 944 billion, up 83% quarter-on-quarter. Margin lending and advance sales revenue totaled VND 1.0 trillion, up 21%. Margin loans and advances rose to VND 39.2 trillion, a 50.6% increase from Q2. Investment income surged 42% to VND 2.03 trillion, accounting for 49.2% of total revenue.

Ho Chi Minh City Securities (HSC, HoSE: HCM) also reported solid Q3 results, with pre-tax profit reaching VND 550 billion. Quarterly revenue hit VND 1.39 trillion, up 67% year-on-year, including:

• VND 507 billion from brokerage (163%), driven by improved liquidity and successful large-scale deals such as the TCBS IPO, where HSC served as exclusive institutional distributor;
• VND 642 billion from margin lending (34%);
• VND 226 billion from proprietary trading (49%).

As of September 30, 2025, HSC’s total assets reached VND 44.8 trillion, with equity of VND 10.6 trillion. The firm recently listed an additional 359.98 million shares, raising nearly VND 3.6 trillion in new capital to expand margin lending and trading operations.

By the end of Q3, HSC ranked among the top five securities firms in margin lending, trailing TCBS, SSI, VPBankS, and VPS.

VN-Index on the way to a new high

With Q3 earnings releases underway, investors are regaining confidence amid expectations surrounding Viet Nam’s potential market reclassification—though most view it as a near-term catalyst rather than a structural driver.

The surge in trading volume on October 20–21, especially in stocks that had slumped since April or reported strong earnings, indicates selective capital inflows.

According to Shinhan Securities Viet Nam’s October report, under its base-case scenario, the VN-Index could advance to 1,700–1,800 points. Analysts anticipate several strong rallies with rising liquidity, signaling the end of the sideways trend and the start of a new upward phase.

Key drivers include positive sentiment from the market upgrade, Viet Nam’s solid economic fundamentals, and resilient corporate earnings.

Conversely, analysts caution that the market may still experience a correction toward 1,550–1,600 points before resuming its uptrend. Any major macroeconomic shock, accompanied by high trading volumes and a break below 1,600, would confirm a bearish scenario—though the probability remains low.

Experts project the VN-Index could close 2025 in the 1,700–1,800 range, with a forward P/E of 14–15x and EPS growth of around 22% year-on-year. Sectors expected to outperform include (1) large-cap stocks with remaining foreign ownership room benefiting from potential reclassification (e.g., HPG, MSN, VNM) and (2) financials such as securities and banking with strong earnings momentum in H2 2025.