2022F retail outlook: "Gathering steam" in the new normal

PNJ's revenue increased by 13.8% YoY and 18.9% YoY, to VND2,090bn and VND2,160bn, on October 21 and November 21, 2021.

Strong recovery

The listed retailers and distributors are expected to recover strongly and come back to growth stage in 2022 thanks to large companies' plans to tap more share from other retailers and distributors that have left the market. For listed companies, October 21-November 21, 20221, sales of retail chains posted a strong growth, which firmed their strong recovery trend, represented by the revenue of MWG’s TGDD & DMX chain and PNJ.

For the TGDD & DMX chains, after all stores reopened, their revenue grew strongly, up 53% YoY and 36% YoY to VND10,355bn and VND9,700bn on October 21, 2021 and November 21, 2022 thanks to (1) demand for high-end smartphone products is still strong when this customer segment is less affected by COVID-19, (2) high pent-up demand effect and (3) increasing iPhone sales thanks to the launch of the new 13 series altogether with the introduction of Topzone chain stores

For PNJ, thanks to the re-opening of stores right in the wedding season and the pent-up demand for weddings in 3Q21, combined with a series of strategies to boost retail sales, PNJ's revenue increased by 13.8% YoY and 18.9% YoY, to VND2,090bn and VND2,160bn, on October 21 and November 21, 2021.

No wide social distancing

After gradually reopening the economy in southern provinces in early October 2021, the government issued resolution No.128/NQ-CP stipulating "safe adaptation, flexibility, and control effectiveness of the COVID-19 epidemic", in which there are 4 levels of pandemic to apply, with the smallest area being the "communal" unit.

With the application of resolution No. 128/NQ-CP, the high vaccinated rate and the impact of supply chain disruption in 3Q21, VNDirect believed retailers and distributors would no longer bear wide-range social distancing in the coming period. However, if the new variants cause another hard pandemic situation in which many areas fall into a level 3–4 pandemic, it will affect the operation of retail businesses at varying levels as below.

Big retailers to gain more market share

According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the number of newly established companies in 11M2021 is 105,618 units, down 15% YoY, and the number of companies returning to operation is 40,530 units, down 0.7% YoY. It demonstrates that competition risks from new businesses are low, allowing existing companies to capitalize on this to gain more market share in their business.

On the other hand, there were 106,441 companies left in the market in 11M21, up 13.9% YoY. In that case, more than 31% of the companies belong to the wholesale, retail, and repair industries. VNDirect believes that the majority of these companies are small-scaled ones, which are hurt more by social distancing than large-scale companies with strong brands and strong management systems. Therefore, it expects large-sized retailers and distributors to have a quick recovery and strong growth in 2022.

Among listed companies, VNDirect expects retailers to have a strong growth in net profit in 2022, with MWG's expected net profit to reach VND6,598bn (40.3% yoy), PNJ's at VND1,616bn (60.6% yoy), and VRE's at VND3,679bn (68.9% yoy).