A springboard for DXG

This AGM is highly anticipated by shareholders as DXG has just restarted the massive Gem Riverside project worth tens of trillions of VND.

DXG Stock “Catches the Wave”

In 2025, the Vietnam real estate market is forecast to recover positively as a trio of real estate-related laws have taken effect, several project legal bottlenecks have been resolved, and banks have actively launched real estate consumer credit programs.

As one of the companies with a large land bank and residential projects, DXG is attracting strong investor attention due to its recent early-year movements. Most notably, the 4.3-hectare Gem Riverside project in Thu Duc City, Ho Chi Minh City. This project consists of 12 blocks, each 32–34 stories high, with over 3,175 apartments. It had previously allowed customers to reserve units through “real estate consulting agreement” contracts but these were later terminated due to non-compliance with new legal regulations. The project received construction approval in September 2024 and is expected to complete foundation infrastructure in Q2/2025 to qualify for sales licensing.

DXG shares have increased from 15,000 VND/share at the end of 2024 to a high of 16,200 VND/share because to anticipated strong sales and good news. Following the extra listing of 150 million shares on March 25, which was the outcome of a share offering to 20,144 domestic investors and 194 international investors in January and February 2025, the stock is expected to continue to perform strongly and assist DXG raise VND 1.8 trillion.

Notably, Dragon Capital, a fund that sold DXG shares in November 2024, has raised its holdings back beyond the 10% mark after the issue at a price of 12,000 VND/share.

Profit “Sweet Spot”

The relaunch of Gem Riverside and the target to complete sales within 2025 and start handovers in 2026 is expected to be a key revenue stream for DXG. According to VCBS, the average selling price is projected at VND 110–120 million/m², referencing nearby projects like Eaton Park Gamuda and Masterise Global City (which range from VND 130–140 million/m²). The project is estimated to generate about VND 27 trillion in sales revenue from 2025–2027, with revenue recognition starting in 2025.

DXG has provided two settlement options for the 300 reservation contracts that have already been canceled: (1) a 20% reduction in the product value, or (2) a full refund of the deposit plus interest and contract termination. According to VCBS, the problem is not expected to cause a major delay in the project's overall timeframe because the impacted units are all located in the same block and DXG is accelerating contract payments.

In addition, DXG also plans to relaunch sales of new phases at Gem Sky World after a three-year hiatus. The project still has over 1,600 unsold units (all eligible for sale), with plans to sell 700–800 units in the second half of 2025. According to VCBS, with the long-term potential of its project portfolio in Binh Duong, DXG is expected to actively launch projects in that area starting from 2026 to optimize pricing and project profitability.

Vietcap also forecasts a sharp increase in DXG's 2025 sales thanks to project restarts and recommends the stock with a price target of VND 17,500/share. This is mainly due to higher net debt at the end of 2024, partially offset by a higher valuation for the brokerage segment. Their model does not yet factor in dilution from the private placement (which increases the total outstanding shares by over 10%).

Risks to Watch

According to Vietcap, risks for DXG include potential delays in selling new projects and dilution risks from ongoing fundraising and share issuance plans.

Another concern is DXG’s continued financial pressure in recent years due to rising debt. As of December 31, 2024, DXG’s total debt was nearly VND 6.6 trillion (22.5% of total assets, up 23.9% from the end of 2023), with short-term debt at VND 3.159 trillion and long-term debt at VND 3.396 trillion. Of this, bond debt accounted for VND 1.39 trillion, including VND 948 billion due in 2025. The debt-to-equity ratio (D/E) rose to 0.43x in 2024 (from 0.37x in 2023). The cash coverage ratio remained low at 0.12x. Net cash flow from operations has been negative for many years (except in 2021), due to increasing inventories, large receivables, and payment pressures to suppliers — resulting in negative cash flow for 2024. This could impact the company’s liquidity.

As of now, DXG has not published the 2025 AGM documents, but investors expect the company to propose revenue and profit growth targets for 2025, along with fundraising and financial restructuring plans. It is hoped that sales from the aforementioned projects will help reduce work-in-progress and inventories while improving cash flow.