The VN-Index could remain in a short-term recovery trend

During the meeting discussing the socio-economic situation, Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang stated that the management of state budget revenue and expenditure in 2023 and 2024 has achieved many positive results. Specifically, budget revenue in both years exceeded the estimates, with the revenue structure shifting in a more sustainable direction due to an increasing proportion of domestic revenue. Budget expenditures, including recurrent expenditures and development investment, were strictly controlled in accordance with the estimates.

In 2024, a 5% reduction in recurrent spending has helped support a program to eliminate makeshift and dilapidated housing for poor households. It is expected that in 2025, budget revenue will need to increase by at least 15% compared to the estimate to ensure sufficient resources for task implementation.

Regarding public investment disbursement, the Minister Nguyen Van Thang noted that the Government has taken strong measures, establishing seven Prime Minister-led task forces and 26 working groups headed by members of the Government to inspect and resolve local-level bottlenecks. The issue of fragmented and scattered investment has been significantly addressed: the number of projects has dropped sharply from around 12,000 in the previous term to about 5,000 currently, and is expected to decrease to around 3,000 in the near future.

The Ministry of Finance reported that all national key projects are being prioritized with resources and are being implemented on or ahead of schedule. As for projects under local budgets, continued review and restructuring are needed to allocate resources to critical areas and improve the efficiency of public investment.

The stock market moved sideways within a narrow range and closed slightly in the red at 1,346 points, with liquidity remaining on par with previous sessions. Cash flow showed renewed divergence, targeting select individual stocks in the banking, real estate, basic resources, energy, construction, and materials sectors. Meanwhile, selling pressure slightly increased in financial services, F&B, technology, and industrial services stocks. The VN-Index is expected to continue fluctuating around 1,350.

In VPS’s opinion, the Vietnam stock market remains cautious near the previous peak around 1,350 points during a trading week that features two key events: the June derivatives expiration and ETF portfolio rebalancing. Market divergence has returned, with individual stocks—supported by corporate-specific news or less affected by global geopolitical volatility—continuing to attract capital and lead the index.

“For now, the VN-Index remains in a short-term recovery trend, heading toward the next resistance zone in the 1,370–1,380 range. Investors are advised to maintain holdings, consider accumulating on dips, or trade within their existing portfolios, with a focus on fundamentally strong stocks, those with positive Q2/2025 earnings prospects, or those benefiting from market liquidity inflows”, said VPS.