Riding the wave of oil and gas stocks

As the market moves toward an upgrade and becomes more stable, oil and gas stocks and high-quality state-owned enterprises (SOEs) could emerge as long-term accumulation plays.

The sharp rally in oil and gas and SOE stocks following Resolution 79/NQ-TW reflects more than short-term expectations — it signals a strategic restructuring process underway.

A Re-rating Catalyst

Stock market data from ABS shows that in the first month of 2026, market breadth remained polarized, with capital rotating across sectors. The strongest gainers included basic resources (85.06%), oil and gas (30.11%), chemicals (14.55%), and retail (14.07%), as capital shifted away from real estate stocks.

Amid the strong breakout of oil and gas and SOE stocks, some investors have expressed concerns that valuations may already reflect expectations. However, viewed through a policy and capital-flow lens, current price action likely represents only the initial accumulation phase at a new price base, laying the foundation for a longer-term growth cycle beginning in 2026.

At the center of this wave is Resolution 79/NQ-TW, widely regarded as a “guiding framework” for upgrading governance and optimizing efficiency at large industrial energy groups and state-owned enterprises.

Fundamentally, the policy impact rests on three pillars.

First, Resolution 79/NQ-TW emphasizes financial transparency, capital optimization, and stronger accountability. As governance standards improve, the cost of capital declines, expanding fair valuation multiples.

Second, it unlocks long-term investment momentum. For companies across the energy value chain, accelerating key projects — from LNG to upstream exploration and production — not only supports revenue growth but also builds multi-year order backlogs. This is particularly meaningful for upstream companies that are highly sensitive to investment cycles.

Third, it triggers a shift in how the market values SOEs. Historically, state-owned enterprises have traded at governance discounts. As the policy framework evolves, that discount is expected to narrow, supporting upward adjustments in valuation metrics such as P/E and P/B ratios.

Fourth, Oil prices may spike sharply, possibly above $US100 a barrel, from $US67 on Friday for West Texas, given the disruption to oil supplies, including via the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran-US and Israel conflict. 

Nguyen Duc Nhan, analyst at Mirae Asset Securities, commented: “This is only the beginning and still modest compared to the long-term upside potential. Current skepticism largely stems from the market’s unfamiliarity with the new price levels established after the policy catalyst. Strategically, short-term pullbacks following sharp rallies are necessary to absorb profit-taking pressure and consolidate the price base for a sustained growth cycle throughout 2026.”

Capital Rotation Dynamics

According to Mr. Nhan, market observations since mid-December 2025 indicate that BSR was the first stock to signal momentum, acting as a leader thanks to strong liquidity and large market capitalization. Capital then rotated into GAS and PVD, reflecting institutional allocation strategies — prioritizing industry leaders capable of absorbing large inflows.

Companies with strong value chains and operational performance are increasingly attracting attention. PVD (drilling and technical services) is benefiting directly from plans to drill 47–63 new wells. GAS (gas distribution) plays a pillar role in energy security, operating new LNG projects. BSR (refining and petrochemicals) leads due to its high liquidity. PLX (fuel distribution) stands out thanks to its extensive distribution network. OIL (fuel distribution) is moving in tandem with the broader SOE group.

The typical liquidity pattern — large-caps stabilizing first — suggests that once major stocks establish price stability, capital will gradually flow into mid-caps and supporting value-chain players.

Strategic Considerations

Against this backdrop, Mr. Nhan highlights three core principles.

First, leverage management. In strong upcycles, leverage amplifies gains but also increases the risk of margin calls during healthy corrections. Maintaining prudent margin levels is essential to surviving a major cycle.

Second, a shift in investment mindset. Instead of speculative trading based on rumors, investors should accumulate fundamentally sound assets that directly benefit from governance reforms. As the market gains stability and moves toward reclassification, oil and gas stocks and high-quality SOEs could serve as long-term accumulation vehicles.

Third, monitor order books — not just oil prices. For upstream names like PVD, short-term oil price fluctuations are less critical than newly signed contracts and project execution progress.

In essence, as governance discounts narrow, institutional capital increases, and valuation floors reset, the market may be entering a new cycle in which corporate value is measured by execution efficiency rather than speculation.

Any near-term corrections, if they occur, are likely to represent temporary pauses — consolidation phases before the broader 2026 cycle takes shape.