Vietnam stock market poised for post-Tet gains

Market analysts expect solid 2025 earnings and a stable macro backdrop could support further gains for Vietnam’s stock market after the Tet holiday.

After three weeks of correction from 1,920 points to 1,740 points, the market halted its decline in the February 10–14 sessions ahead of Tet.

The Vn-Index rose 3.91% to 1,824 points. SHS Securities in its report said capital rotated smoothly among sectors, with gains seen in real estate, brokerage, power, seaports, retail and banking.

Market liquidity fell 31.5% from the previous week. SHS attributed the drop to investors scaling back activity before the Lunar New Year break. Foreign investors, however, returned as net buyers with purchases of more than VND3.1 trillion (US$121.7 million), ending a four-week streak of net selling.

Experts forecast that equities are likely to advance after Tet. Nguyen Anh Khoa, Head of Research at Agribank Securities Joint Stock Company (Agriseco), said the market tends to perform well after the holiday based on historical patterns.

Over the past decade, the VN-Index posted gains in 90% of cases following Tet, with an 80% probability of rising over the subsequent month. SSI Securities shared a similar view, saying the post-Tet period often presents attractive opportunities for investors in the following months.

Beyond seasonal factors, Khoa said the market is also supported by strong fourth-quarter 2025 earnings released in late January. Profit growth of listed companies rose 30% year on year, significantly higher than the 22% recorded in 2024.

“I believe corporate earnings will continue to improve this year,” he said.

SSI also described the positive 2025 earnings season as a key driver for the market after Tet. The firm noted that fourth-quarter revenue of listed companies increased 26.5% year on year, while profit after tax attributable to parent shareholders jumped 44.7%, the highest level since the second quarter of 2021.

SHS added that solid macro fundamentals remain a pillar for the market. The year 2026 marks the start of a new development phase, with the Government targeting average GDP growth of at least 10% annually over the next five years and aiming for per capita income of about US$8,500 by 2030.

The national stock market development strategy also sets a goal of equity market capitalization reaching 120% of GDP and an upgrade to emerging market status.

From a technical perspective, Tien Phong Securities, or TPS, said the pre-Tet rebound could evolve into a new uptrend under a symmetrical triangle pattern, with a target range of 1,980 to 2,000 points. The prior correction pushed momentum indicators into oversold territory, helping the market rebalance and create room for fresh capital inflows.

BIDV Securities cautioned that in the first week after the holiday the VN-Index may retest support at 1,725 points. Investors may consider gradually increasing exposure to fundamentally strong stocks during pullbacks for short-term trading.

Meanwhile, Phu Hung Securities (PHS) said the index may continue to fluctuate around the 1,800 to 1,830 range to build a firmer base. In a positive scenario, improved demand could lift the VN-Index toward higher resistance near 1,850 points. On the downside, immediate support stands at 1,780 points, and a break below that level could revive selling pressure, it noted.

PHS advised investors to maintain a moderate allocation, noting the market is still validating the recent correction and has yet to confirm a clear trend.

“Most stocks remain in a consolidation phase. New buying should be considered only when liquidity and market breadth improve in a broad-based manner,” the brokerage firm added.

Link to the original article