Credit growth picks up

This also clearly reflects the strong growth of the economy in Q1/2025, with an impressive GDP of 6.93% — the highest in the past five years.

Strong Expectations for Credit Balance Growth

According to Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) Nguyen Thi Hong, by the end of Q1/2025, credit growth reached 3.93%, which is 2.5 times higher than the 1.42% recorded in the same period last year. The sharp rise in credit indicates a positive contribution by the banking sector to total social investment in recent times, facilitated by favorable economic developments.
Right from the beginning of this year, the SBV proactively set a 16% credit growth target to allow credit institutions to plan and disburse funds more actively.

During the ongoing annual general meetings (AGMs), many banks have presented ambitious business plans, with high credit growth targets, often accompanied by the note “subject to SBV approval.” Among those with the highest projected credit growth: HDBank plans a 32% increase, VIB over 22% (with hopes for further expansion approval), MB approximately 23.7%, LPBank 22.2%, TPBank and MSB around 20%, and VPBank, SHB, OCB, and ACB at 16%, etc.

Some smaller banks are also aiming high for 2025, such as: Vietbank (20%), BVBank (18%), ABBank (16%), and Sacombank (14%). Among the Big 4 state-owned banks, BIDV targets 15–16%, and Vietcombank 16.28%.

Overall, MSB forecasts that with the positive momentum of 2025, the government's strong growth commitment, high public investment disbursement rates, and robust recovery in Vietnam’s manufacturing and consumption sectors driving retail credit, credit growth could reach 17–18% in 2025. However, this forecast does not yet fully account for the potential impacts of tariff fluctuations on the economy.

Proactive Measures Amid Challenges

Beyond external macroeconomic factors that could reduce capital absorption, experts generally expect Vietnam's tariff-related challenges to be short-term.
Mr. Trịnh Văn Tuấn, Chairman of the Board at OCB, said that the bank believes an 8% GDP growth scenario in 2025 would prompt the government to accelerate public investment disbursement, with a projected completion rate of about 90% in 2025. This is expected to bolster corporate credit growth and improve household purchasing power.

He added that even if a trade war arises, the impact would be partial — for example, from a favorable level of 10 down to 8 — but businesses expect Vietnam to successfully negotiate suitable tariffs with the U.S., potentially achieving parity with export competitors such as Indonesia and Bangladesh for key goods like textiles, footwear, and wood products. With the inherent capabilities of Vietnamese enterprises and credit support from banks, there is confidence in expanding into other markets.

Meanwhile, emphasizing the opportunity in Vietnam’s transformation into a new global science and technology hub, Mr. Pham Quoc Thanh, Member of BOD and Acting CEO of HDBank, shared that the bank has an action plan to scale up, boost growth, enhance loan portfolio quality, expand into low-risk lending sectors, and promote green loans and environmentally friendly investments.

The bank aims to ensure efficient, safe financial indicators and make a breakthrough in CASA (current account savings account) growth to improve capital costs. “Right after the government instructed the SBV to implement the VND 500 trillion credit program, we registered for VND 20 trillion,” Mr. Thanh said.

Mr. Từ Tiến Phát, CEO of ACB, noted that although loans to FDI firms and large import-export conglomerates currently account for only about 1% of total credit, ACB has proactively engaged with clients to address potential difficulties. In general, ACB’s clients have diverse operations and well-diversified market allocations. Therefore, despite macroeconomic fluctuations, ACB expects minimal impact and aims to maintain its 16–18% credit growth target.

One notable point for 2025 is the overall optimistic outlook of the banking sector, with credit growth anticipated to reach 16.4%, indicating strong confidence from the year’s starting point. However, Dr. Cấn Văn Lực, Chief Economist at BIDV, cautions that under the baseline scenario of 6.5–7% GDP growth (a conservative estimate amid global volatility), credit growth may only reach 14–15%, due to still-weak capital demand and absorption in certain sectors, a slowly recovering real estate market, and property prices that remain too high for most consumers.

Emphasizing the importance of capital, Dr. Lực predicts that bank liquidity will remain abundant (with SBV support). Despite low interest rates, deposits are still expected to attract the public. According to SBV data, total deposits from residents and economic organizations across the banking system in January 2025 stood at VND 14.62 quadrillion, down 0.75% compared to the end of 2024.

This decline in mobilization puts pressure on policymakers to balance supporting liquidity, maintaining low interest rates, and keeping exchange rates stable. Whether banks will choose to further reduce NIM (net interest margin) or increase CASA by all means will determine how they enhance their lending capacity while maintaining reasonable costs and expanding credit as planned.