Exports in the second half of the year promised to be vibrant

Operating at Nam Hai Dinh Vu port, Hai Phong. Illustration photo: T.Binh

Many industries are accelerating

In the first 6 months of this year, textile and garment is one of the leading industries with export turnover of more than 16 billion USD, up 3.1% over the same period last year. Mr. Cao Huu Hieu, General Director of Vietnam Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex), commented that compared to the same period in 2023, the textile and garment industry has recorded more positive signals, with more orders and longer ordering times. Most garment businesses have received orders until September and October and are negotiating for the next stages. However, the key point is that order prices do not increase. Enterprises work at very low prices, equivalent to the general level of prices in 2023.

Based on the order signals of the garment industry, the signals of the fiber, textile and dyeing industry, Mr. Hieu forecasts that this year, the export turnover of the entire textile industry will increase by about 8 - 10% compared to 2023.

Similarly, for the wood industry, according to statistics from the General Department of Customs, in the first 6 months of 2024, Vietnam's export of wood and wood products reached 7.5 billion USD, an increase of 23.1% year on year. Of which, wood product exports reached 5.1 billion USD, up 22.2% year on year.

Recovering demand from export markets is the factor that helps Vietnam's export of wood and wood products record growth in the first half of 2024. In particular, wood and wood products exports The largest export to the US market, reaching 4.1 billion USD, an increase of 24.5% over the same period in 2023; followed by the Chinese market reaching 1.05 billion USD, an increase of 49.3%; Japan reached 796.8 million USD, down 2.2%; Korea reached 389.2 million USD, down 1.4%...

However, according to the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), in the second half of 2024, export activities of wood and wood products still suffer from challenges such as ongoing geopolitical conflicts as well as transport price rockets. Furthermore, wood and wood products exported to large markets such as the United States and markets in the EU continue to face pressure from trade defense investigations and technical barriers related to the environment, sustainable development, and green transformation. Specifically, regulations on preventing and combating forest degradation will be applied by Europe from the end of 2024; The US market imposes anti-dumping regulations, investigates kitchen cabinets...

According to a report from the Ministry of Industry and Trade, export turnover in June 2024 recorded the value of 33.09 billion USD, up 2.6% compared to the previous month. In the first 6 months of 2024, merchandise export turnover was estimated to reach 189.5 billion USD, up 14.5% over the same period last year.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade forecasts that the global economy and trade are on the path to recovery and better growth by 2025. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO) (April 2024), the global volume of merchandise trade grew by 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025. Positive signals from the global economy contribute to positively promoting the growth of Vietnam's export goods in the second half of 2024.

Proactively face challenges

Besides the advantages, businesses say that there are still many factors affecting Vietnam's export activities.

According to Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department, foreign trade activities in 6 early months also must pay attention to the escalation of sea freight rates. Although the May-June was not considered as the peak, in some routes from Asia to the US and EU due to conflicts in the Red Sea, transport businesses have to change shipping routes. Some seaports in Asia are congested; ships have to wait a long time to operate, leading to a lack of bookings and container imbalance among Asian seaports.

In addition, increasing geopolitical tensions and competition with major countries, sluggish recovery of major trading partners, high levels of the world USD interest rates, and risks of supply chain disruption and global production chain have directly affected import-export activities and Vietnam's highly open economy. Import and export activities continue to depend on a number of markets, products and FDI areas.

Notably, some key export products to major markets (EU, US) continue to face pressure from trade defense investigations, technical barriers related to the environment, sustainable development, and green transformation. Despite positive recovery signals, some key export products such as footwear, wood and wooden products, phones of all kinds and components, have not yet returned to the peak of the same period in 2022.

To accelerate the export of goods in the six year-end months, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said it would continue to closely monitor market developments and change partners' policies to propose appropriate solutions for diverse development in both traditional export markets and new markets. At the same time, the Ministry also continues to promptly inform industry associations about developments in export markets so that businesses can promptly adjust appropriate production plans and orient their search for orders from markets; regularly maintain trade promotion conferences with the Vietnam Trade Office system abroad. In addition, it will direct the Vietnam Trade Office system in market areas to timely update information on foreign market situations and regulations, standards, requirements of foreign markets that can affect Vietnam's import and export activities as well as recommendations for localities, associations and import-export businesses...