Import and export are expected to reach 800 billion USD

Vietnam's commodity exports achieved high growth in key markets. Illustration photo: Vietnam

30 billion-dollar export items

At the regular Government meeting in September 2024, Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien assessed: import and export continued to be a bright spot, recording a positive recovery compared to the same period last year.

Up to this point, the total import and export turnover of the whole country reached nearly 580 billion USD, an increase of 16.2% over the same period. Following such growth momentum, it is possible that by the end of the year, the value of our country's import and export turnover could reach 800 billion USD.

Analyzing the export market of goods in the past 9 months, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, export turnover to most markets and major trading partners of our country has recovered positively and achieved high growth. In particular, the United States is Vietnam's largest export market with an estimated turnover of 89.4 billion USD, accounting for 29.8% of the country's total export turnover and increasing by 27.4% over the same period last year (the same period in 2023 decreased by 17.6%); followed by the Chinese market with an estimated turnover of 43.56 billion USD; the EU market is estimated at 38.1 billion USD; South Korea is estimated at 18.9 billion USD; Japan is estimated at 18 billion USD, etc.

From the perspective of the export industry, the assessment of the Ministry of Industry and Trade shows that although the turnover in September 2024 decreased by 9.9% compared to the previous month, reaching 34.05 billion USD, in the first 9 months, the total export turnover of goods reached 299.63 billion USD, up 15.4% over the same period last year.

Of which, the domestic economic sector reached 83.47 billion USD, up 20.7%, accounting for 27.9% of total export turnover; the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) reached 216.16 billion USD, up 13.4%, accounting for 72.1%. This shows a positive signal in the export activities of the 100% domestic-owned enterprise sector, when the export turnover growth rate of this sector is nearly twice as high as that of the foreign-invested enterprise sector.

Notable data in the past 9 months, there were 30 items with export turnover of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 92.3% of total export turnover. Notably, in this group, there were 7 items with export turnover of over 10 billion USD, accounting for 66.4%.

In terms of commodity structure, all three groups of agriculture, forestry and fishery; processing and manufacturing industry; mineral fuels continued to maintain export growth momentum. Notably, the export turnover of the agriculture, forestry and fishery group reached 28.8 billion USD, up 21.9% over the same period in 2023, accounting for 9.6% of the total export turnover of the country. In this group, some items had high export turnover compared to the same period last year such as: pepper increased by 45%; coffee increased by 37.8%; rice increased by 23%; tea of ​​all kinds increased by 31.9%; vegetables and fruits increased by 33.9%; cashew nuts increased by 21.7%.

The manufacturing and processing industry continued to play a leading role when it reached 253.9 billion USD, accounting for 84.7% of total export turnover and increasing by 15.2% over the same period in 2023. In particular, the export turnover of many groups of processed industrial products achieved high double-digit growth, with key export items such as: plastic products increased by 30.8%; wood and wood products increased by 21.5%; textiles and garments increased by 8.9%; footwear of all kinds increased by 12.5%; iron and steel of all kinds increased by 14.7%; computers, electronic products and components increased by 27.4%; cameras, camcorders and components increased by 30%; machinery, equipment, tools and other spare parts increased by 22%; phones of all kinds and components increased by 7.2%, etc.

For the group of mineral fuels, exports are also estimated at 3.1 billion USD, up 3% over the same period in 2023.

From the business perspective, Mr. Vu Duc Giang, Chairman of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association, said that despite facing many challenges, the textile and garment group still maintained its performance when bringing in more than 32.4 billion USD, up 6-7% over the same period last year. With the current situation, the total export turnover of Vietnam's textile and garment products is expected to reach from 43 to 44 billion USD.

Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen, General Secretary of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, said that since the Protocol allowing fresh durian to be exported to China was signed in July 2022, durian exports to China have continuously grown remarkably and durian has become the number 1 export item of the Vietnamese fruit and vegetable industry, with a value of more than 2.2 billion USD in 2023 and has exceeded 2.5 billion USD in the first 9 months of this year, expected to reach more than 3 billion USD by the end of 2024.

According to the Trade Promotion Agency (Ministry of Industry and Trade), up to now, in addition to 14 types of agricultural products exported through official channels, most of the remaining products are exported through border trading channels (informal trade). The demand for fruit consumption in the Chinese market is very large and Vietnam's ability to supply high-quality, specialty fruits is very abundant.

Along with that are the advantages of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements (FTAs) of which both countries are members. In addition, Vietnam is also a country with more than 1,450 km of border (waterway, road) with China, so logistics costs are lower and more competitive than other countries. Therefore, there is still a lot of room for fruit businesses of the two countries to exploit and develop.

What are the challenges in the last quarter of the year?

Although maintaining the export growth rate in the past 9 months, the situation in the last months of the year is forecast to face many challenges. The Ministry of Industry and Trade forecasts that exports to key markets such as Europe and America will continue to have both advantages and challenges.

Year-end consumption demand in major markets such as the US and EU will be an important driving force to promote exports, especially in the fields of electronics, consumer goods and textiles. Because global retailers increase stockpiling of goods for major holidays. The FTA market continues to have a positive impact, maintaining Vietnam's advantages in trade and investment activities, etc.

However, the world's geopolitical developments continue to be complex, unpredictable, with many difficulties, challenges, risk factors, and uncertainties, especially geopolitical tensions and armed conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.

Developed countries are more concerned with issues of sustainable development and consumer safety, creating new standards and regulations related to supply chains, raw materials, labor, and stricter environment for imported products, etc.

Accordingly, one of the key tasks set by the Ministry of Industry and Trade from now until the end of the year is to focus on effectively exploiting the FTAs ​​that have come into effect and signed, implementing new Agreements to expand and diversify markets, import and export goods, and supply chains. Strengthening the exploitation of neighboring markets with potential, strongly shifting to official exports associated with brand building, promoting sustainable exports, etc.