Market liquidity expected to reach USD 1.5b, VN-Index will surpass 2,000 points in 2026?

Looking back at Vietnam’s stock market, the VN-Index’s 41% gain stands out as one of the strongest performances in its history. Analysts at Maybank Investment Bank Securities Vietnam (MSVN) attribute this achievement to four main factors.

First, corporate earnings recorded an impressive 21% growth despite tariff-related barriers.

Second, the successful negotiation of reciprocal tariffs down to around 20%—a level that businesses consider acceptable for undertaking restructuring and transition.

Third, accommodative monetary policy combined with news of a potential FTSE market upgrade helped banking and securities stocks lead the market in the middle of the year. Finally, the strong rally of Vingroup stocks in the fourth quarter helped sustain momentum, pushing the market close to the 1,800-point mark.

In terms of sector performance, 2025 clearly reflected the above drivers, with solid recoveries in residential real estate, commercial retail, and especially diversified conglomerates. Growth in retail banking and the steel sector (such as Hoa Phat) has been robust. Meanwhile, the aviation and tourism sectors enjoyed a breakout year, posting growth of more than 40%.

Conversely, export-oriented sectors—including chemicals, information technology, automobiles, components, and industrial parks—underperformed the broader market, with some even declining. This is understandable, as despite more favorable tariff conditions, investor sentiment remained under pressure.

Regarding liquidity, 2025 saw a 50% increase compared with 2024, averaging around USD 1 billion for the year. A notable downside was record net selling by foreign investors, exceeding USD 4 billion. However, selling pressure gradually eased toward the end of the year (peaking in August) and turned into net buying in December. This was partly driven by Vingroup’s leadership in the second half of the year, along with sustained corporate profit growth that brought valuations to more attractive levels. In addition, U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and a stable exchange rate also contributed to a more positive outlook among foreign investors.

Looking ahead to 2026, Mr. Quan Trong Thanh, Director of Research at Maybank Investment Bank, said the research team maintains a positive view based on three overarching factors.

First, fiscal and monetary policies are expected to remain accommodative in support of the government’s 10% economic growth target; fiscal policy will be the main driver, but monetary policy cannot tighten significantly.

Second, corporate earnings in 2026 are projected to grow by 18%. While lower than the 21% recorded in 2025, this remains very strong compared with the historical average of around 15%.

Third, liquidity is expected to continue improving, supported by credit growth and the market upgrade narrative. Based on these factors, the VN-Index could reach 2,000 points in 2026. “I believe that once stocks are officially included in the index (September 2026), the market will experience a strong bull run. The VN-Index could spike to 2,300–2,400 points, but a more reasonable and feasible level would be around 2,000–2,100 points,” he forecast.

Excluding the sharply rising Vingroup stocks, overall market valuation remains below the five-year average, at reasonable levels and not a cause for major concern. A 2,000-point target corresponds to a market-wide P/E ratio of approximately 14–15 times.

Regarding sector outlooks for 2026, MSVN is optimistic about aviation and tourism, supported by visa liberalization policies, a shift in tourist flows from China, and improving transport infrastructure.

Banking is the second most promising sector, backed by solid profit growth and attractive valuations.

The energy sector is also favored, as high GDP growth targets are expected to spur public investment and resource extraction, benefiting companies such as PVS, PVD, and GAS.

The information technology sector also shows strong potential, with 2025 viewed as the bottom of the demand cycle, according to experts. However, MSVN analysts remain cautious on the beverage sector and maintain a neutral stance on chemicals.

Residential real estate is also approached cautiously, with a focus on select stocks such as Khang Điền (KDH), Nam Long (NLG), and Vinhomes (VHM). The retail sector is expected to continue seeing leading companies such as Mobile World (MWG), PNJ, and Masan (MSN) gain market share.