Seizing opportunities from Vietnam’s new IPO wave

After several subdued years, Vietnam’s stock market is entering a new capital-raising cycle marked by a visible revival of initial public offerings (IPOs). This cycle is significant not only in terms of capital size but also for what it signals about changes in market structure, investor risk appetite, and the economy’s long-term development trajectory.

Growth Drivers

Looking back over the past decade, Vietnam’s IPO market has experienced pronounced cycles. The 2017–2018 period marked a peak, with a series of large IPOs and listings by private banks and state-owned enterprises that attracted strong foreign inflows and were often priced at significant premiums to sector averages.

From 2019 through early 2025, however, the market entered a prolonged lull, with few large IPOs. The 2025 revival—led by securities firms—has a different profile: offering prices are closer to market-average valuations, the investor base is more balanced, and success is increasingly measured by sustainability rather than short-term exuberance.

According to Cao Viet Hung, an analyst at ACBS Securities, this phase reflects a market that has learned to price assets more fundamentally—better aligning valuations with long-term earnings capacity rather than near-term expectations. The next IPO wave is expected to be larger and more diversified, driven by three main forces.

First, Vietnam’s roadmap to FTSE secondary emerging market status in 2026 and its target of MSCI reclassification by 2030 are expected to unlock substantial foreign capital inflows and generate strong demand for newly listed shares.

Second, ongoing efforts to streamline IPO procedures and shorten approval timelines are making capital markets more accessible for enterprises.

Third, the economy’s massive capital needs to support a targeted 10% growth rate during 2026–2030 are forcing a shift in financing away from the banking system toward equity markets, encouraging companies to pursue IPOs as a strategic funding route.

Investment Opportunities

Against this backdrop, the robust return of IPO activity in the securities sector in 2025 stands out as the clearest early indicator. Data from ACBS show that three major securities-firm IPOs—Techcom Securities (TCX), VPBank Securities (VPX), and VPS Securities (VCK)—raised a combined VND 35.6 trillion (about USD 1.35 billion). These deals were not isolated transactions but a critical stress test of overall market capacity.

TCX recorded subscriptions 2.5 times the offering size, with roughly 50% coming from foreign funds. Valuations of 22.5x P/E and 2.5x P/B were considered reasonable relative to sector averages, despite the firm’s larger scale and stronger efficiency. VPX achieved a 104% subscription rate, nearly 30% from foreign investors, but its shares fell about 17% from the IPO price after listing—reflecting market caution toward a relatively nascent growth model.

VCK, which pursues a market-share-driven strategy and maintains a 16–19% share of the retail brokerage market, attracted predominantly domestic retail investors (98%). Despite being priced at a premium to the sector average on the back of ROE above 20%, its shares also declined about 17% post-listing. According to Hung, the common thread across these deals is that while the market accepted reasonable valuations, post-IPO performance remains contingent on future growth expectations.

The initial success of these pioneers is expected to spur unlisted securities firms—such as Kafi, HDBS, and LPBS—to accelerate IPO plans to avoid falling behind in capital strength and market share.

Beyond financials, the new IPO wave is opening opportunities in high-growth sectors. Do Tien Dat, an analyst at ACBS, points to Hoa Phat Agricultural Development Corp. (HPA) as a notable example in high-tech agriculture. Its integrated “farm-to-table” model underpins a sustainable competitive advantage. HPA reports ROE of nearly 40—more than double the industry average—net margins above 20%, and an estimated dividend yield of around 9.2% at the IPO price, alongside a commitment to maintain a minimum dividend of VND 3,000 per share annually from 2026 to 2030.

Overall, Vietnam’s new IPO wave is underpinned by a favorable macro environment, successful early deals that have tested market absorption, and the emergence of leading companies with proven business models. Analysts note that the defining feature of this cycle is higher IPO quality and more realistic valuations, providing a foundation for sustainable growth.

Dragon Capital also forecasts a surge in IPO activity from 2026 onward. The fund says it is closely monitoring pre-IPO companies and state divestment plans, estimating that total IPO value over the next three years could reach approximately USD 47.5 billion—expanding market depth and attracting additional investment, particularly from foreign investors.

Against this backdrop, the 2026–2030 period is widely viewed as one of the most compelling opportunity cycles for Vietnam’s capital markets. For investors with strong analytical capabilities and a long-term perspective, early participation in the IPO wave is not merely a short-term return play, but a chance to align with the next phase of the economy’s growth.