Stock Market Daily Forecast: VN-Index's upward momentum may slow down

The VN-Index opened the first session after the New Year's holiday in positive territory and quickly accelerated to near 1,800 points within the first 30 minutes of trading. The main contributor to the overall score was the Vingroup stocks, led by VHM.

However, the dominant red color in the VN30 basket, along with strong selling pressure on some blue-chip stocks such as HDB, STB, FPT, and MWG, caused the VN-Index to lose momentum and fluctuate around the reference mark. Oil, gas, and electricity stocks were bright spots in the session, with impressive gains in GAS, PLX, BSR, and PC1 (including gas which hit the ceiling price).

The VN-Index's movement in the early afternoon was quite stable, once again approaching 1,800 points before unexpectedly facing strong downward pressure from the banking stocks (HDB, LPB, and VPB) and securities (VIX which hit the floor price). This development caused the VN-Index to quickly fall below the reference mark. Red dominated the market with 223 stocks in the red and 95 in the green. Conversely, efforts to maintain green in the Vingroup, oil, gas, and retail stocks (with purple in VHM, GAS, and DGW) somewhat slowed the decline of the VN-Index.

Towards the end of yesterday’s session, some stocks that had fallen sharply during the session narrowed their losses and even regained green, helping the VN-Index close above the reference level. At the close, the VN-Index closed at 1,788.4, up 3.91 points, or 0.22%.

The VN-Index closed with a Doji candle, indicating a tug-of-war as it approached its previous peak of 1,800 points. On the daily chart, the DI line is above 25, but the ADX line is below this level, suggesting that the VN-Index's upward momentum may slow down and move sideways to test short-term momentum, especially as the index is in the strong resistance zone of 1,790-1,800 points. The RSI indicator shows a negative divergence, but this does not align with the MACD indicator, somewhat mitigating the risk of significant volatility during the session.

On the hourly chart, the VN-Index closed with a Hammer candle, showing signs of buying pressure returning at the end of the session. The RSI indicator is trending downwards from its high, and the /-DI lines are crossing, so attention should be paid to potential volatility in the 1,770-1,790 area in the next session.

The VN-Index showed quite positive momentum with an attempt to reclaim the previous peak of 1,800 points in the first trading session of 2026. Although the market fluctuated frequently during the session, the VN-Index still closed higher thanks to the efforts of some stock groups such as Vingroup, oil & gas, and retail.

VCBS recommends that investors selectively choose stocks that have rebounded from strong support levels or belong to sectors that are attracting renewed attention from cash flows after a long sideways period to invest during the VN-Index's fluctuations in the following sessions. In addition, investors should limit investment in stocks that have already experienced strong gains and are at strong peaks/resistance levels to avoid the risk of unexpected corrections. Some sectors to watch include retail, electricity, and real estate.