Stock Market Daily Forecast: Wary of the VN30 futures expiration date

The VN-Index opened yesterday in green but experienced constant fluctuations with a 10-point range throughout the session. Large-cap stocks such as VIC, HVN, and VHM continued to support the benchmark index. On the opposite side, GVR, LPB, and VNM exerted downward pressure on the VN-Index. Besides real estate, the securities sector also attracted notable cash flow this morning.

Trading liquidity improved slightly by 10% compared to the same time yesterday; however, the green color narrowed, with 139 advancing stocks versus 155 declining ones. Foreign investors continued net selling nearly VND 800 billion, focusing on VCI and STB.

The VN-Index regained green around 14:00 and closed near the session high at 1,659.92. Many stocks hit or approached the ceiling price (ANV, NVL, DGW), further strengthening market sentiment. Large-cap stocks moved mixed against the broader market, with main pressure coming from GVR, VCB, and VNM. The duo VHM and VIC continued their role in supporting the overall market, pushing the VN30 Index back into green during the ATC session.

Session liquidity exceeded VND 20 trillion, a slight improvement from previous sessions. Foreign investors reversed to net buying of about VND 600 billion, mainly accumulating HPG and FPT. The VN-Index ended at 1,659.92, up 5.5 points (0.33%).

The VN-Index closed very close to the 1,660 psychological level, gaining a solid 5.5 points (0.33%). On the 1-hour (1H) timeframe, the VN-Index is moving along the upper Bollinger Band with a clear short-term uptrend. Both MACD and RSI are gradually turning upward in alignment, signaling that the recovery momentum of the benchmark index is likely to continue in the coming sessions. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) = 0.42, confirming that capital inflows are strongly returning to the market.

On the daily (1D) timeframe, the index formed a small-bodied green candle with a long lower shadow, reflecting strong buying pressure in the afternoon session (demand absorbed late selling). The VN-Index successfully held above the 20-day MA and is now approaching the next major resistance zone around 1,670. The ADX remains flat, indicating that the index still needs one strong explosive session to confirm the resumption of a sustainable uptrend.

The VN-Index continued its strong recovery session, moving closer to the key resistance level around 1,670 points. The majority of sectors recorded gains. However, market breadth narrowed slightly with 152 advancing stocks and 161 declining stocks. This Friday will be the VN30 futures expiration date, which is likely to increase volatility and cause sharper swings in the VN-Index over the preceding sessions. In VCBS’s view, investors can still take advantage of intraday rallies to deploy capital into sectors that have undergone deep corrections earlier and are now recovering strongly while attracting returning cash flows, particularly banking, securities, and real estate.