The US dollar’s inability to rally this year when assessments of ‘risk’ have increased may be an early sign that there’s not so much of privileges left for the US.
The FX market has become quiescent after a rush of volatility in the spring around the time of President Trump’s tariff bombshell. That’s good news for currencies,...
Financial markets display what we would call ‘short memory syndrome’. Issues like US trade policy suddenly become big news and seem to drive every twist and turn in the...
Implied volatility across G10 currencies is about as low as we’ve seen in a year, or more. And yet, we’d argue that this is in contrast to the amount and volatility of...
It appears a well-accepted fact that the plunge in the US dollar earlier this year came about because global investors in US assets decided to increase their hedge...
A likely FED rate cut this week might be seen as a catalyst for the US dollar weakness but rate cuts themselves are probably not the driver here.
Major G10 currencies do not seem to be particularly attractive right now and that’s opening the door for the more minor G10 currencies, the renminbi, and other emerging...
Many analysts anticipate that the US dollar will undergo a second period of notable weakness in coming months. It might not be as dramatic as that seen this spring but...
Sometimes important announcements produce significant and instantaneous reactions in currencies. Be they about data, policy – central bank sackings. But sometimes they...
In many analysts’ opinions, if artificial intelligence (AI) is the gift that keeps on giving for US productivity it won’t be the gift that keeps on giving for the US...
The theory and historical precedent show that countries that raise tariffs will see their currency rise. But the US dollar has fallen.
At Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Powell signaled a possible interest rate cut at the U.S. central bank's meeting next month.
According to many analysts, the gold price is unlikely to rise sharply next week after the Jackson Hole Symposium because investors remain cautious.
The US tariffs’ impact on eurozone growth could be bigger than the models might suggest that inflation will be lower, and that the ECB will be pushed into at least one...
G10 currency volatility remains at very low levels but many analysts expect volatility to pick up as we go through the rest of the year.
There are some discussions about whether tariffs are harmful for US productivity.
What if global asset prices go into a meltdown as we saw in the wake of President Trump’s ‘liberation day’ announcement in early April?
We see three reasons why the US dollar could slide in coming weeks and months. The slide could push euro/dollar into a 1.20-1.25 range and drag dollar/yen down to the...
Even if some of the uncertainty related to the US’s erratic tariff policy starts to ease off, there are still the economic impacts of tariffs to consider and, these are...
Borrowers and investors can choose to borrow (or invest) in non-domestic currencies and, if they do, they usually choose the US dollar. But there is a good case for both...
The fact that the surge in tariff-generated risk aversion this year saw the US dollar and treasury bond prices fall, not rise as they usually do when risk aversion...
The tariff-related vulnerability of the US dollar switches to a vulnerability borne of Federal Reserve policy. As a result, the US dollar could fall with euro/US dollar...
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