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The Middle East conflict has taught us a lot about the FX market. Some moves we might have suspected beforehand, but some moves have still been a surprise.
Many analysts doubt that this is going to change in the short-term. However, they still remain focussed on a longer-term structural downtrend for the US dollar;...
Asset prices have slumped in the days following the US/Israeli offensive against Iran. It might look pretty bad but it might have been a whole lot worse if the rise in...
The US/Israeli attacks on Iran and Iran's response will likely have both short and long-run consequences for currencies.
The vulnerability for the US dollar in US tariffs does not lie in issues such as their scope, economic harm, or even their legality. Instead, the vulnerability lies in...
The US dollar has been set back by the US Supreme Court’s decision to rule the bulk of the tariffs illegal. Many analysts doesn’t see this as a fatal blow to the US...
For once it seems that the US dollar is not the key focus right now. Japan’s election and its implications for the yen are in the spotlight while political...
US dollar weakness could open up scope for rate cuts; not least from the ECB. However, we need to bear in mind that the US dollar is not just falling.
We saw another sharp rise in global risk aversion last week following US threats to take Greenland and impose tariffs. In the end, neither happened. But what the threats...
New pressures on the Federal Reserve (FED), in the form of a subpoena from the US Department of Justice serves to highlight the crosscurrents impacting the US dollar.
If we look at the performance of the US dollar against other G10 currencies since President Trump’s 2024 election win we see a very similar pattern to how the US dollar...
The US dollar fell by almost 10% last year but many analysts anticipate that its losses in 2026 will only be around half of this amount.
Many analysts think that the yen and renminbi could be the ones to watch in 2026 and both for similar valuation-type reasons.
MBS forecasts the exchange rate to rise by about 2.5%–3% in 2026, with pressures remaining relatively high in the first half of the year.
It has long been said that there is no alternative to US assets for global investors given US attractions such as market scale and liquidity. Does this view remain...
Unless something material changes it looks as if the US dollar will slide to the end of this year. It would round off a thoroughly miserable 2025 for the greenback.
Forecasts for the economic and financial market outlook in 2026 seem pretty benign.
The US dollar's previous strength, which was predicated on "exceptionalism" in the US financial and economic markets, ended in 2025. Even while this kind of...
Up to this year, so-called US economic and financial market ‘exceptionalism’ propelled the US dollar forward. But the US has not been as exceptional in 2025, and efforts...
The US dollar has started the week on a softer note. It is a theme that could endure as the currency faces a triple threat in coming weeks.
There will, as ever, be a whole range of factors that influence the US dollar through next year and beyond. But many analysts think that one really stands out:...
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