Politics is an obvious choice given the US presidential election in November 2024, for the outcome of the vote could well dictate the next significant directional move...
The US economy is robust, but slowing. Inflation is proving sticky at levels above target. Fed rate cuts are being pushed back but the dollar and yields are steady. Into...
Mr. Trump described a CBDC as a “dangerous threat to freedom” last month and vowed to block it if he becomes president.
The global economy has defied a hard landing in 2023. As 2024 unfolds, a new but more complex economic landscape is taking shape.
History shows that Republican presidents are more likely to preside over a falling US dollar, but Trump’s first term was a little better than his predecessors.
2024 is a bumper year for elections. Around half of the world’s population will be eligible to vote for new leadership.
The US dollar has started 2024 in pretty stable fashion and this stability may continue until two key questions are answered: will the Fed ease policy as the market...
As this is the last daily commentary of the year we thought that we’d outline some of our assumptions for next year and how these shape our predictions for financial...
It seems that there are other factors that usurp interest rates and start to dominate currency trends.
In the UK, it had seemed for a long time that politics did not matter very much when it came to the performance of financial assets such as gilts and the pound.
The Republican Party might not have had the bumper election results that former President Trump might have hoped to launch his re-election bid, but it still seems likely...
Over a number of years, we have talked about the “presidential cycle” for the dollar.
If the Republicans do make sweeping gains, it will plunge the US into a Liz Truss like political and financial market nightmare.
We view the impact of political developments on developed-country currencies in the same was as we do central bank policies.
The US dollar seems set to stay in ascendancy in the short-term at least while the yen’s struggles persist.
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