There seem to be a number of factors, that have clear historical precedent, that could squeeze the dollar much higher, even if only temporarily. Most of these factors...
Politics dominates given two elections in Europe this week and the continued fallout from President Biden’s poor performance in last week’s presidential debate.
A left-leaning but stable government, or a right-of-centre government that is inherently unstable? We could be about to find out in the UK as the electorate is likely to...
Politics is usurping economics when it comes to financial market volatility and may do so for some time.
The Standard Bank expected the yen’s recovery would remain slow and possibly require more FX intervention.
For while one outcome – a win for incumbent Biden – may keep the US dollar subdued, the other outcome, of a victory for former president Trump, threatens to upend any...
The UK and US share elections this year; the former on July 4th and the latter November 5th. But the 2024 calendar is all they share because, in many respects, the two...
The idea that G10 currencies will not fall against the US dollar as others lead the Fed with their easing cycles will be tested again this week as the ECB and Bank of...
International investors in US securities could face FX risks once US securities start to be settled on a T+1 basis from next week.
The FX market remains calm. A slight levelling in the growth gap between the US and other countries, notably in Europe, is pegging the US dollar back but big moves in...
In the Standard Bank’s view, and probably the view of everybody else, there are two main scenarios for the path of the US economy and Fed policy.
Are measures of currency valuation worth it, especially when it comes to very big currencies such as the US dollar?
Although prospects for interest rate divergence between the Fed and other G10 central banks is providing the US dollar with support, this is counterbalanced to some...
There seems to be increased talk that issues such as yen weakness, high US rates, the strong US dollar, weak Chinese growth, and more, could create tensions across Asia...
FX intervention usually meets with a sceptical response. It has been no different for the Bank of Japan as its recent efforts to strengthen the yen have been dismissed...
Politics is an obvious choice given the US presidential election in November 2024, for the outcome of the vote could well dictate the next significant directional move...
The pressure from a rising US dollar continues to fall primarily on emerging market currencies, particularly in Asia given other factors as well such as the weakness in...
Indicators of “risk” have increased sharply this month and, as usual, this had led to some strength in the US dollar, particularly against emerging market currencies.
If there is a consensus running through the global macro debate, it seems to be that the US economy will continue to outshine other countries, the Fed will delay its...
Unsurprisingly, speculation that the FED won’t be able to cut rates until later in the year, if at all, is weighing on foreign currencies, especially in emerging...
The US economy is robust, but slowing. Inflation is proving sticky at levels above target. Fed rate cuts are being pushed back but the dollar and yields are steady. Into...
In a number of regards everything seems to have been going right in the US in recent years, and going wrong elsewhere. But the US dollar has been quite static. Why is...
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