The US tariffs’ impact on eurozone growth could be bigger than the models might suggest that inflation will be lower, and that the ECB will be pushed into at least one...
There are some discussions about whether tariffs are harmful for US productivity.
What if global asset prices go into a meltdown as we saw in the wake of President Trump’s ‘liberation day’ announcement in early April?
We see three reasons why the US dollar could slide in coming weeks and months. The slide could push euro/dollar into a 1.20-1.25 range and drag dollar/yen down to the...
Even if some of the uncertainty related to the US’s erratic tariff policy starts to ease off, there are still the economic impacts of tariffs to consider and, these are...
Borrowers and investors can choose to borrow (or invest) in non-domestic currencies and, if they do, they usually choose the US dollar. But there is a good case for both...
The fact that the surge in tariff-generated risk aversion this year saw the US dollar and treasury bond prices fall, not rise as they usually do when risk aversion...
The tariff-related vulnerability of the US dollar switches to a vulnerability borne of Federal Reserve policy. As a result, the US dollar could fall with euro/US dollar...
The IMF has just released its annual External Sector Report (ESR). Included in this is an assessment of how far currencies lie from levels that are consistent with...
The US has introduced punitive tariffs this year and the US dollar has fallen. This is not how it’s supposed to be. Theory and historical experience suggest that the...
It seems that “crunch time” on US tariffs has been reached on a number of occasions already.
Many economists and financial markets are banking on only a modest and temporary lift to US inflation from tariffs.
The pound remains under modest pressure on a trade-weighted basis after marking out a recent high back in late May. The Standard Bank lowered its expectations for...
The US dollar continues to recover modestly after the plunge seen so far this year but many analysts doubt the rebound will last too long or get too far.
There has been considerable talk this year that the dollar is losing status, and with it, value as well. The corollary of this is to ask which currencies may challenge...
If this week’s tariff reveal from the Trump administration provokes another bout of heightened risk aversion will the US dollar rise, as befits its customary safe-asset...
The so-called ‘strong dollar’ policy is 30 years old. It has been adopted by successive US treasury secretaries but its meaning has changed over time. However, this...
The euro has risen by 14% against the US dollar so far this year. That’s a big rise and, at a time when the concerns of the ECB seem to be shifting from inflation to...
If the one big, beautiful bill (OBBB) gets through, it won’t really be cutting taxes at all and that could be important when it comes to the fate of the US dollar.
The factors driving the US dollar seem to be pushing the greenback in the direction of an even bigger slide. The US dollar has already fallen by more than 10% this year...
Many analysts think that while the U.S’s attack on Iran could temporarily lift the greenback, it won’t reverse the longer-term decline.
As long as the Fed holds out against Trump’s pressure for lower rates, the more the US dollar could further.
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