We have been arguing recently that if former president Trump wins the November 5th election, then any subsequent US dollar rally is likely to fizzle out and be replaced...
Clearly there is a huge amount of speculation about the outcome of the November 5th US presidential election and the impact that it is likely to have on financial...
Many people spoke about a connect between the Fed and the market should former president Trump win the November 5th election.
The global financial markets will price in a good deal of volatility over the US election, but without any significant directional skew or bias.
Although much of the focus within the foreign exchange market remains locked on central bank policy easing, politics and geopolitics seem more likely to take the driving...
Many investors question whether currencies will be impacted when geopolitical conflict breaks out.
The US dollar has been in what might be called a ‘holding pattern’ for the past couple of years. But it is close to the bottom of the range now and the question is...
In many senses it seems hard to envisage a better scenario for riskier assets than the one we have right now but, as always, there are factors that could upset this...
The US dollar has been pressurised by the Federal Reserve’s large 50-bps rate cut last week, but the downside for the greenback is likely to be limit ed ahead of...
While the Fed rate cut has no surprise, the size of the reduction was larger than expected, and the Fed’s explanation for the larger-than-anticipated rate cut was...
Even 50-bps rate cut today also leaves the Fed behind the curve, it can catch up with aggressive easing in the future if it needs to.
The BoJ almost certainly won’t hike rates again this week, but this need not necessarily rule out another painful carry-trade unwind.
The US dollar will presumably be sensitive to the size of the Fed rate cut this week but many analyst said investors should not overplay the role of US monetary policy...
The euro is at the upper end of the 1.05-1.10 trading range that has been in place for much of the past eighteen months.
It seems that there are two opposing views about the yen-funded carry trade that underwent such huge turmoil earlier this month.
So far, financial markets have retained the faith in the US dollar, even though it seems that US policymakers have undermined this faith with things like protectionism....
It finally looks as if the Fed will come to the rate-cut party currently being enjoyed by most developed nations. It is only the Bank of Japan that is acting as the...
If the yen-funded carry trade stays out of fashion for a while, what other currencies could take its place?
It seems to make sense to ask how the markets will react if Harris emerges as victor on November 5th.
Many financial asset prices have recovered after the battering late last week and early this week. Will the slump in things like stocks and dollar/yen continue to fade...
Euro/US dollar has hardly left the extremely narrow 1.05-1.10 range since early 2023.
Politics and monetary policy continue to dominate FX market sentiment and this is unlikely to change in the short-term.
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