The pressure from a rising US dollar continues to fall primarily on emerging market currencies, particularly in Asia given other factors as well such as the weakness in...
Indicators of “risk” have increased sharply this month and, as usual, this had led to some strength in the US dollar, particularly against emerging market currencies.
If there is a consensus running through the global macro debate, it seems to be that the US economy will continue to outshine other countries, the Fed will delay its...
Unsurprisingly, speculation that the FED won’t be able to cut rates until later in the year, if at all, is weighing on foreign currencies, especially in emerging...
The US economy is robust, but slowing. Inflation is proving sticky at levels above target. Fed rate cuts are being pushed back but the dollar and yields are steady. Into...
In a number of regards everything seems to have been going right in the US in recent years, and going wrong elsewhere. But the US dollar has been quite static. Why is...
After another strong US payroll report last Friday, talk of US ‘exceptionalism’ continues to grow and, with it, the risk that the Fed won’t deliver significant rate cuts...
The Bank of Japan lifted the short-term policy rate for the first time in seventeen years last week but the yen still languishes close to its weakest level against...
Last week, we saw the third attempt by US dollar/yen to really break through the 150 level that has proved an insurmountable barrier twice before since October 2022.
The by-product of this is plunging FX volatility, something that usually works to the benefit of risker currencies.
The US dollar has risen against the euro and the pound even though policy rate differentials have been very stable, particularly with respect to the UK.
Where is the US dollar likely to trade against other G10 countries over the long haul?
We’ve already seen in the space of a few short weeks the market adjust its expectations for rate cuts this year from around six 25-bps reductions to four.
We’d still expect the US dollar to rally for the safe-asset reasons.
A cyclical economic recovery takes hold, the euro will claw back some lost ground, perhaps particularly against the US dollar.
BoJ could intervene again, but the situation for US dollar/yen now does not appear as precarious as it was when the BoJ intervened back in the autumn of 2022.
The US’s dominant position in global finance clearly allows the country to stretch the elastic on fiscal discipline, and the general level of external debt, in a way...
Last week’s FOMC meeting was generally seen as somewhat more hawkish than expected. A few days later, US payroll data for January was a lot stronger than anticipated....
In some ways we can look at the valuation of the dollar as something of a balancing act.
The global economy has defied a hard landing in 2023. As 2024 unfolds, a new but more complex economic landscape is taking shape.
Some people said the more the US dollar is lent internationally, the weaker the US dollar becomes. So, which is correct?
History shows that Republican presidents are more likely to preside over a falling US dollar, but Trump’s first term was a little better than his predecessors.
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