Long term outlook for the US dollar
Where is the US dollar likely to trade against other G10 countries over the long haul?
Where is the US dollar likely to trade against other G10 countries over the long haul?
We’ve already seen in the space of a few short weeks the market adjust its expectations for rate cuts this year from around six 25-bps reductions to four.
We’d still expect the US dollar to rally for the safe-asset reasons.
A cyclical economic recovery takes hold, the euro will claw back some lost ground, perhaps particularly against the US dollar.
BoJ could intervene again, but the situation for US dollar/yen now does not appear as precarious as it was when the BoJ intervened back in the autumn of 2022.
The US’s dominant position in global finance clearly allows the country to stretch the elastic on fiscal discipline, and the general level of external debt, in a way...
Last week’s FOMC meeting was generally seen as somewhat more hawkish than expected. A few days later, US payroll data for January was a lot stronger than anticipated....
In some ways we can look at the valuation of the dollar as something of a balancing act.
The global economy has defied a hard landing in 2023. As 2024 unfolds, a new but more complex economic landscape is taking shape.
Some people said the more the US dollar is lent internationally, the weaker the US dollar becomes. So, which is correct?
History shows that Republican presidents are more likely to preside over a falling US dollar, but Trump’s first term was a little better than his predecessors.
There has been some talk recently that political parties vying to win this year’s UK election could propose the sort of fiscal largesse that rekindles memories of the...
The US dollar has started 2024 in pretty stable fashion and this stability may continue until two key questions are answered: will the Fed ease policy as the market...
In 2024, the BoJ seems likely to start the process of lifting policy rates and if we assume that most other G10 central banks start to cut, there’s a good chance for the...
The US economy is streets ahead of its peers, but the US dollar is not. Does this mean that there’s something wrong with the US dollar?
The euro has come under some modest pressure recently against other developed currencies.
There have been a couple of reports recently that seem to flag the possibility, maybe even the probability, that the sharp rise in policy rates will cause adverse...
A much sharper than expected fall in euro zone inflation data for November weighed on the euro. However, we see two reasons why falling inflation won’t weaken the euro...
It is probably a common narrative in the market that, just as the dollar rose with the increase in US policy rates, so the dollar will fall as rates are cut.
It is future total factor productivity (TFP) that’s key; not what’s happened in the past when it comes to currencies.
The dollar price listed at commercial banks has continuously gone down in recent days.
The reference exchange rate between the Vietnamese đồng and the US dollar announced by the State Bank of Việt Nam (SBV) at the last trading session of last week...