Unveiling the 4Q outlook for the Vietnam stock market

The Vietnam stock market could continue to break out and gain points in the near future thanks to a number of factors, including bright macroeconomic prospects, economic stimulus plans being implemented, public investment disbursement being boosted in the context of monetary policy still being assessed as loose, and the continued good revenue and profit prospects of listed enterprises. Of particular note is FTSE Russell's announcement to upgrade Vietnam's stock market from a frontier market to a secondary emerging market, effective September 21, 2026.

Macro leverage

Despite worries about inflation, economic growth continues to be the top target. Impressive figures since the start of this year, with GDP growth predicted to be between 8.3 and 8.5%, are not the only indication of growing optimism. Additionally, Vietnam has shown to be stable and resilient in the face of significant shocks from escalating geopolitical tensions and global macroeconomic developments.

With a two-tier government model, the Vietnamese government also confirmed that it will continue to pursue the double-digit growth target through 2026, concentrating on transportation infrastructure projects; fostering production, public invesment; and promoting local consumption and exports. In addition to being the primary engine of growth, this also instills confidence in investors who have already engaged in the stock market and those who want to do so.

Conquering new heights

As the financial, chemical, port, and technological sectors report good revenue and profits, the business performance of listed corporations have been improving. Particularly in some industries like securities, banking, real estate, chemicals, oil and gas, and ports, many businesses have seen stronger growth than they did during the same time previous year. Additionally, the first three quarters of this year have shown business outcomes for several utility, steel, and agricultural industries that are better than the industry average.

In the first three quarters of this year, banking sector earnings grew by an average of 21-22% as a result of higher net profit margins and strong credit growth. Finance, construction, oil and gas, steel, fertilizer, seaports, and industrial park real estate (NT2, BSR, HAH, HVN, VCG, PVD, KBC, GVR, etc.) are the top industries exhibiting positive development.

The listed companies' business performance also reflects the strengthening investment climate, which has made them the center of investment activities that draw intelligent money flows to the Vietnamese stock market.

Additionally, upgrade of the Vietnamese stock market to a secondary emerging market may boost the capital flow of institutional and individual investors, both local and foreign.

From the end of the second quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2025, this can also act as a catalyst to assist the stock market start a fresh, robust upswing. In the event that numerous stocks rise substantially in comparison to the overall stock market’s growth, the VN-Index might continue to rise sharply, topping 1,800 points.

Investment strategy

Dr. Le Duc Khanh, head of Research at VPS Securities, said the long-term stock purchasing and holding strategy is still the most popular one at the moment. It is also possible to apply short-term trading flexibly, particularly with stocks that have demonstrated remarkable business outcomes.

Based on statistical data, around 45 to 50 equities have been traded with liquidity levels above the market average. Numerous equities have had exceptional growth, with prices surpassing their peak. Seaports, oil and gas, seafood, industrial real estate, and securities sectors all have a number of equities that are still reasonably priced. This can serve as a recommendation for a trading plan for the year's end.

“Short-term investment can be used for equities with strong growth rates, appealing prices, and plenty of space for expansion in addition to investing in holding promising stocks during a rally. Some equities that show promise for the fourth quarter of 2025 include ANV, KBC, VCG, BSR, PVD, NT2, HHV, and HAH”, said Khanh.