VN-Index may continue to go sideways

The VN-Index opened lower on Thursday, rebounded to positive territory for most of the session but fell late to close down 0.7% at 1,313.8. Market liquidity increased, with total trading value increasing 3.6% DoD to VND26.1bn (USD1.0mn). The HNX-Index followed the same pattern, sliding 0.3% to close at 216.8.

Most sectors were in the red yesterday, led by Industrial Goods & Services (- 1.5%), Basic Resources (-1.5%) and Telecommunications (-1.3%). In contrast, Travel & Leisure (3.0%), Utilities (1.2%) and Financial Services (0.1%) gained. Top performers included VHM (1.2%), HVN (6.0%), and GAS (1.2%), while top laggards included VPL (-6.1%), VIC (-1.1%) and CTG (- 1.5%).

Top index movers included HVN (6.0%), VHM (1.2%), GAS (1.2%), EIB (4.2%), and POW (3.4%). Top index laggards consisted of VIC (-1.1%), CTG (-1.5%), TCB (-1.3%), MBB (-1.6%), and FPT (-1.3%).

Reciprocal trade negotiations between Vietnam and the United States concluded their second round from May 19 to 22, 2025, in Washington D.C., with positive progress but many issues still requiring further discussion.

Vietnam-US discussions spanned critical areas including market access for goods and services, investment, transparency, subsidies, environmental standards, and technology transfer. Significant consensus emerged on opening the market for agricultural and processed industrial goods, harmonization of technical and environmental standards, dispute resolution mechanisms, and intellectual property protection.

Overall, while a signed agreement was not reached, many analysts view the ongoing efforts as tailwinds, and the round indeed established a clear technical and political roadmap for potential deals ahead, including plans for virtual technical meetings in June and a third negotiating round in Vietnam, indicating a viable path towards achieving a bilateral trade agreement with a reduced levy in 2025.

Foreign investors net bought yesterday with a total net buying value of VND63.3bn (USD2.4mn). Buying momentum focused on VIX (VND147.6bn, USD5.7mn), MWG (VND134.1bn, USD5.2mn) and VHM (VND111.8bn, USD4.3mn). On the contrary, foreign investors mainly sold FPT (VND131.4bn, USD5.1mn), VPB (VND95.3bn, USD3.7mn) and VRE (VND71.2bn, USD2.7mn).

Today, VN-Index rose to 1,317.4 while HNX-Index increased to 217.22.

In the base scenario, MBS believes that the Vietnam stock market will go sideways to retest the support zone of 1,265 - 1,270 points. In the most positive scenario, when the reciprocal tariff is within the expected range, the VN-Index can completely return to 1,340. Regarding investment strategy, the market may be full of challenges, but it is also an opportunity for patient investors with a clear strategy. MBS recommends that investors reduce the proportion of stocks to take advantage of opportunities when the market is in a sideways trend, focusing on defensive stocks (electricity production and distribution), stocks serving domestic demand...