What macro factors support the Vietnam stock market in 2H2026?

In the first half of 2026, the outbreak of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz triggered an energy shock that disrupted all previous macroeconomic forecasts. However, in the second half of 2026, the investment environment is expected to gradually become more favorable as major risks begin to cool down and no new shocks strong enough to alter the market trend have emerged.

Two Phases of the Stock Market

The Vietnamese stock market entered 2026 amid macroeconomic volatility from international markets and prolonged lingering effects, leading to sideways fluctuations and a slight increase in the first half of the year. The market's performance can be divided into two main phases.

Phase 1 lasted until near the end of the first quarter. The market moved sideways during the first two months before plunging sharply from late February due to the impact of the Middle East conflict.

After a month of hostility, the Middle East conflict still impacts the market forecast for the second quarter of 2026. The stock market in Q1/2026 was affected by conflicts in the Middle East, then transitioned into a divergence phase in Q2/2026. (Illustrative photo)

Phase 2 spanned from the end of the first quarter to the end of the second quarter. The market showed a recovery trend but with a clear divergence, driven by the anticipation of negotiation outcomes between the US and Iran, alongside strong momentum from the sharp gains in Vingroup stocks.

In total for the first half of the year, the VN-Index decreased by 4.2% in terms of points compared to the end of 2025, while the order-matching transaction value increased by 34% year-on-year, according to statistics from KBSV Securities.

Mr. Tran Duc Anh, Director of Macro and Market Strategy at KB Vietnam Securities Joint Stock Company (KBSV), citing Bloomberg data, assessed that the current P/E of the VN-Index stands at 15.1, slightly lower than the 5-year average of 16.1.

However, the expert noted that the sudden surge in Vingroup stocks since the beginning of 2025 means this P/E ratio does not fully reflect the valuation level of the majority of stocks on the market. The VIC and VHM tickers alone contributed approximately 450 points to the VN-Index's growth since early 2025, and VIC's P/E is currently trading at 140 times.

Therefore, to better evaluate the current valuation zone of the VN-Index, KBSV re-estimated the market P/E (referred to as adjusted P/E) under the assumption that the P/E of Vingroup stocks had remained unchanged since the beginning of 2025 (in other words, the price fluctuations of this group align with the trailing 4-quarter profit).

The results indicate that this adjusted index is currently at 11.2 times, very close to the Covid bottom in March 2020 (at 11.3 times), the 2022 bottom (at 11.01 times), and the tariff bottom in 2025 (at 11.6 times) — meaning it has returned close to the bottom zone.

Factors Hitting the Stock Market in the Second Half of the Year

Entering the second half of 2026, with the easing of tensions in the Middle East — a region with a deep impact on both global and Vietnamese macro contexts — combined with several macroeconomic bright spots and positive corporate business results, forecasts are generally more optimistic than the most recent projections, according to Mr. Tran Duc Anh.

Along with macroeconomic factors, listed companies' profits are forecast to grow strongly, and the upward adjustment of market-wide EPS growth will support the stock market in the second half of the year. (Illustrative photo)

First, listed companies' profits are forecast to grow strongly. KBSV adjusted its market-wide EPS growth forecast for 2026 up to 25% YoY, mainly reflecting a 200% increase in VIC's planned net profit (35,000 billion VND). Excluding this extraordinary growth from VIC, the market-wide EPS growth stands at 14% YoY, with major contributions coming from large-weight sectors: Materials (40% YoY), Consumer Discretionary (18% YoY), and Financials (14% YoY). This growth reflects expectations for Government efforts to stimulate growth and concentrate resources on developing core business sectors into sustainable pillars of the economy.

Second, the international macro environment remains highly uncertain, yet the level of risk is lower than before. In the first half of 2026, the conflict outbreak in the Strait of Hormuz caused an energy shock that upended all prior macro forecasts. However, in 2H2026, we expect the investment environment to gradually become more favorable as major risks begin to cool down and no new shocks strong enough to alter the market trend have emerged. The reduction in geopolitical tensions and more stable energy prices will create conditions for cash flow to return to the stock market.

Third, the 2026 GDP growth forecast is maintained at around 8%, based on expectations of an improving global macro backdrop and supportive Government policies aiming to materialize double-digit growth goals. Accordingly, management policies will focus on accelerating public investment disbursement, unlocking private sector capital, attracting FDI, while maintaining a balance between growth targets, inflation control, and exchange rate stability.

VN-Index Forecast to Reach 1,950 Points

Regarding the market outlook for 2026, with the assessment that interest rates will gradually cool down in the second half of 2026 while listed companies' profits continue to grow strongly, KBSV maintains its forecast for the reasonable range of the VN-Index at 1,950 points by the end of the year, as stated in its latest report, corresponding to an increase of approximately 5% from the current price zone.

The market's 2026 EPS growth is expected to rise sharply to 25% (up from 11% in the latest report), primarily driven by expectations of the Government's economic stimulus policies, a sharp drop in oil prices as Middle East conflicts ease, and explosive profit growth at VIC.

In terms of valuation, the expert maintains the reasonable P/E range of the VN-Index at the end of the year to be equivalent to the current zone at 15.1. Actual data shows that the price range of the majority of large-cap stocks on the exchange (excluding the Vingroup cluster) is in an attractive zone relative to business performance growth. The adjusted P/E currently sits at 11.2, equivalent to the bottoms of 2020, 2022, and 2025, reflecting attractive growth potential as macro risks gradually recede.

However, the analyst noted that they are not rushing to raise the target P/E level of the VN-Index just yet, recognizing that the international macro context still harbors many uncertainties, while the high valuation of Vingroup stocks also poses potential pressure if a correction trend emerges in this group.