Corporate earnings expected to grow 18% in 2026

Looking at the domestic context, Ms. Linh noted that policy measures and institutional reforms are gradually feeding through to the broader economy.

She emphasized that the economy is expected to transition from a phase of “absorption and recovery” to one of “acceleration,” as multiple growth drivers begin to take effect simultaneously. Recently, Resolution 79 issued by the Politburo underscored the leading role of the state-owned sector, setting targets such as having one to three state-owned enterprises ranked among the world’s top 500 corporations by 2030. This, combined with Decree 68 on private sector development issued earlier, provides a foundation for more coordinated and sustainable domestic growth.

Amendments to the Securities Law are seen as beneficial for bondholders, as they aim to prevent violations by bond issuers, curb high-risk investment activities, mandate timely disclosures, and require credit ratings to strengthen market discipline.

More recently, credit tightening—particularly in real estate lending—has been implemented. Clearly, tighter credit conditions combined with a rising interest rate environment have had a negative short-term impact on the property market, with real estate stocks falling sharply over the past few weeks.

“However, from a long-term investment perspective, these controls are assessed as more positive than negative. They play an important role in restructuring the real estate market, helping bring prices back to more reasonable levels, curbing speculation, and rebalancing genuine supply and demand,” Ms. Linh said.

“At present, we expect the earnings of listed companies to grow by more than 18% this year. This figure reflects a clear recovery in domestic demand and an improvement in profit margins,” according to VinaCapital.

In 2025, following the issuance of Decree 68, VinaCapital revised upward the earnings forecasts for several key private enterprises. With Resolution 79, the firm’s analysts believe the immediate impact will be more limited, as state-owned enterprises typically require more time to reflect changes due to their larger, less flexible structures compared to the private sector.

Experience from 2025 shows that while the initial credit growth cap was set at 16%, full-year credit growth reached around 19%. As such, policy settings may be adjusted after one or two quarters, depending on GDP growth in the first half of the year.

In addition to credit control and policy flexibility, fund managers noted that property developers recorded strong sales in 2025. As a result, most of the profits recognized this year stem from units already sold (around 80–90%), with revenues now being booked, providing a degree of earnings certainty. Any adverse impact would likely be reflected more clearly in 2026 earnings.

For several large companies, growth momentum remains solid, profit margins are high, and valuations are still reasonable. Based on the PEG ratio (P/E relative to growth), many sectors continue to trade below 1x, while return on equity (ROE) remains elevated. This suggests there is room for market re-rating. Unlike previous cycles, price gains may spread more broadly across sectors rather than concentrating solely on a few market leaders, Ms. Linh said.

Overall, experts paint a fairly positive picture for earnings in 2026. Specifically, profits across sectors are expected to post positive growth, typically in the range of 15% to 30%. Nevertheless, differentiation will persist, making stock selection an ongoing priority for fund managers. Against the market-wide growth assumption of 18%, VinaCapital’s open-ended funds are projected to deliver slightly higher average earnings growth of around 19% to 21%.