Expectations for continued accommodative monetary policy

The recent wave of upward adjustments in deposit rates has intensified as year-end approaches and cyclical credit demand is forecast to surge. At the same time, banks are preparing capital for 2026, ahead of a race to expand outstanding loans without credit growth caps, in line with specific financial safety standards under Circular 14/2025/TT-NHNN, Basel III, and related regulations.

Over the past week, the group of state-owned commercial banks (SOCBs)—Vietcombank, BIDV, VietinBank, and Agribank—have all raised their posted deposit rates by up to around 50 basis points across most tenors, after keeping rates unchanged since mid-2023.

Earlier this month, VietinBank was the first among the state-owned “big players” to make a modest increase in savings rates for online deposits.

Following these adjustments, deposit rates for tenors of 12 months and longer at state-owned banks have returned to levels seen at the end of 2023, while short-term rates remain about 0.5 percentage points lower than at that time.

Specifically, Vietcombank, BIDV, and VietinBank are applying identical counter rates. Twelve-month deposits have been raised to 5.2%; six- to nine-month tenors to 3.5%; and one- and three-month tenors to 2.1–2.4% per annum.

Agribank has also set the 12-month rate at 5.2%, while offering rates for shorter tenors that are 0.3 percentage points higher than those of the other three state-owned banks for over-the-counter deposits.

For online deposits (via apps or websites), most short-term rates below 12 months at these four banks are higher than counter rates. However, rates for 12 months and longer are lower, ranging from 4.7% to 5.3% per annum.

Notably, BIDV implemented two sharp increases in online savings rates within less than a week, lifting short-term rates to around 3.0–3.4% per year and long-term rates to 5.2–5.3% per year, in order to compete as other banks simultaneously raised deposit rates. The first adjustment occurred around December 12, 2025, and the second around December 18–19, 2025, affecting the SOCB group.

Private Banks and SOEs

According to Vietcap analysts, banks’ interest rate hikes are not unexpected, given that private banks had raised rates earlier and the SBV increased its open market operation (OMO) rate by 50 basis points.

More importantly, following the latest adjustment, the posted 12-month deposit rates of Vietcombank, BIDV, and VietinBank rose from 4.6–4.7% to 5.2%, still 30–40 basis points below the trough during the 2020–2021 COVID period and about 160 basis points below pre-COVID levels. This suggests that the absolute interest rate environment remains supportive of the economy.

For private banks, Vietcap noted that the recent rate increases have been primarily driven by private lenders, particularly smaller banks focused on retail customers. On a deposit-size-weighted average basis, private banks have raised deposit rates by around 50–64 basis points across tenors over the past three months.

In terms of quoted rates, private banks have increased posted deposit rates by approximately 20–140 basis points across various tenors since the beginning of the year (noting that deposit rates declined slightly during March–May following government directives). Smaller private banks (such as KLB, GPBank, PVComBank, BVB, SGB, etc.) have recently offered deposit rates—including promotional programs—for select customer segments at around 7.5–8.1% for six- to 12-month tenors.

Alongside accelerating deposit rate adjustments and receiving liquidity support from the SBV, banks are also diversifying their funding structures by: (1) issuing debt instruments (bank bonds and certificates of deposit); (2) mobilizing foreign funding (for example, MBB recently secured a USD 500 million green syndicated loan that was oversubscribed by international banks); and (3) conducting private placements of shares (with capital-raising plans being restarted).

“We continue to maintain the view that the current upward pressure on deposit rates remains manageable and that the absolute interest rate level is generally still supportive,” Vietcap said. “We expect the SBV to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance to support the government’s 10% GDP growth target for 2026. Short-term liquidity is being actively supported by the SBV, and historically, liquidity tightness tends to ease from March after the Lunar New Year holiday.”

In the medium term, experts believe system liquidity and funding will continue to be supported by: (1) interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve; (2) accelerated disbursement of public investment; (3) banks’ further diversification of funding channels; and (4) the return of household businesses and traders to depositing funds in the banking system as they gradually adapt to new tax and e-invoicing regulations.

Viewing the interest rate increase as largely seasonal to meet year-end credit disbursement needs, Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan (University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City) said that monetary policy must remain as it is to ensure the double-digit growth target for next year. According to him, exchange rate pressures have at times forced banks to raise interest rates.