Investment oulook for 2026: Value and resilience take center stage

This is the core assessment offered by Trần Ngọc Báu, CEO WiGroup reflecting on market developments in 2025 and the outlook for the year ahead.

2025: A rare broad-based rally

From an investor’s perspective, 2025 was a notably successful year. Most major asset classes—from gold, equities, and real estate to bonds and foreign exchange—posted meaningful gains. Even holding US dollars generated returns of around 3–4%, underscoring a global environment marked by volatility but free from systemic shocks.

In equities, sentiment played an important role as Vietnam was placed on the watch list for market upgrade. Capital flows, particularly from foreign investors, tended to concentrate in large-cap stocks—roughly 30 to 40 names closely tracked by global funds. If real demand materializes at scale, some of these stocks could experience outsized price appreciation.

Fundamentally, the market continued to hinge on two familiar pillars: corporate earnings growth and valuation. Excluding certain stocks within large conglomerate ecosystems that trade at elevated multiples, overall market valuations were not viewed as excessive.

2026: A new price plateau, but uneven gains

That said, Báu does not expect the broad-based rally of 2025 to repeat in 2026. Instead, markets are likely to enter a phase of sharper differentiation. Factors such as a modest uptick in interest rates and narratives that have already been partially priced in will constrain uniform returns across asset classes.

This does not imply a lack of opportunity. In equities, corporate earnings are still expected to grow, albeit at a slower pace than in 2025. Gold, despite trading at high levels, remains attractive given persistent geopolitical and political risks globally. Real estate, meanwhile, is unlikely to surge across the board, but selective opportunities remain—particularly those linked to infrastructure development and supportive government policies.

Overall, the market appears to be normalizing: less exuberant but more sustainable and grounded in fundamentals.

With capital no longer concentrated in a handful of ecosystem-driven themes, Báu emphasizes the renewed importance of fundamentally strong stocks with clear intrinsic value. At current valuation levels, companies with transparent business models, stable cash flows, and long-term earnings visibility are likely to attract capital progressively.

Gold continues to serve as an effective defensive asset in an uncertain global environment. Real estate, while facing sharper differentiation, still offers opportunities in locations that benefit directly from infrastructure investment and policy support—though a return to the broad-based booms of previous years is unlikely.

Macroeconomic backdrop

At the macro level, Báu views the government’s high growth targets for 2026 as ambitious and challenging. Ongoing institutional and legal reforms, alongside efforts to deepen capital markets, signal a clear intent to unlock new growth engines and reduce overreliance on bank credit.

However, achieving double-digit growth will not be easy, given that many stimulus levers were already pulled in 2025. In 2026, growth is still expected to rely heavily on public investment, credit expansion, and improved conditions for capital mobilization via equity and bond markets. A notable bright spot is the expectation of a clearer return of foreign capital flows, both portfolio and direct investment.

On exports, after benefiting from geopolitical tailwinds in 2025, Vietnam will face a high base effect in 2026. As a result, export growth may moderate to around 5–6%, significantly lower than the previous year, while structural imbalances and concentration risks in export composition remain areas of concern.

In sum, 2026 is unlikely to be characterized by broad, synchronized rallies. Instead, as Trần Ngọc Báu argues, it will reward investors who are patient, selective, and disciplined—those who prioritize fundamentals and intrinsic value in a market environment that is becoming more pragmatic and resilient.