Real estate market is expected to recover in H2

Real estate prices from now until the end of the year will have no sudden changes, but the sector is expected to rise next year. — Photo kinhtedothi.com.vn

HÀ NỘI —The domestic real estate market is forecast to recover in the second half of the year thanks to policies issued so far in 2023.

The Government has made many decisions to help solve difficulties of the real estate market to solve obstacles related to capital and legal procedures for property projects.

Economist Cấn Văn Lực, a member of the National Monetary and Financial Policy Advisory Council, has predicted: "We'll need to wait until the fourth quarter of 2023 to see a clearer path for for recovery of the property market, as policies issued to remove obstacles in the market will take time to have real impacts."

According to Lực, in the second half of 2023, it is still necessary to speed up the review and have solutions to continue removing problems of real estate projects; and accelerate the disbursement of public investment, the implementation of rehabilitation programmes, and the development of social housing and housing for workers. Authorities also need to focus on regulating supply and demand in the real estate market.

In addition to stipulating the classification of real estate segments to have appropriate credit, capital and financial policies, the management agency needs to have a suitable tax schedule and promote non-cash payments for real estate transactions.

Meanwhile, enterprises in the property sector need to have a specific and feasible plan to pay for mature corporate bonds, especially in the period of 2023-24.

Besides bank credit, there are many channels to mobilise capital, such as bonds, stocks, investment funds, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and finance leases, Lực said.

Assessing the market, Nguyễn Vũ, director of the New Home Real Estate Centre, said that the market will have better performance in the fourth quarter of 2023 or in the second quarter of 2024 if the Government's policies on supporting the real estate market have real impacts on the stakeholders in the market.

The market is still struggling with limit  ed transaction volume and is waiting for better performance in the second half of 2024 thanks to policies and credit packages for developing social housing and housing for workers.

Phạm Anh Khôi from the market research team of the Việt Nam Real Estate Brokers Association (VARS), said that there will be two scenarios for the real estate market in the second half of the year. Specifically, in the first scenario, if the real estate market remains in difficulties and investors' confidence has not been restored, it is possible that capital will continue to stay in the banking system even though interest rates are at lower levels.

In the second scenario, if the deposit interest rates fall to 6-7 per cent by the end of this year or even do not decrease, the capital from deposits will likely return to the real estate market when buyers' confidence is improved.

Trần Khánh Quang, general director of Việt An Hòa Real Estate Investment Company, said in the second half of the year the market may begin to recover.

The real estate market in the first half of 2023 had many difficulties with low liquidity and a reduction in selling prices. Up to now, the cautiousness and wait-to-see psychology of investors are dominating the whole market.

Vũ Cương Quyết, general director of Đất Xanh Miền Bắc Real Estate and Services JSC, said the State Bank of Việt Nam has cut policy rates four times, which is the foundation for the commercial banks to cut lending interest rates for home buyers as well as businesses.