Stock Market Weekly Forecast: Greater caution in opening new positions

The VN-Index had a week of trading within a narrow range around 1,880-1,900 points. At the opening of last week's trading session, the market saw a strong tug-of-war between buyers and sellers around 1,900 points. In subsequent trading sessions, cash flow was largely concentrated in large-cap stocks and the oil and gas sector, but there was a shift away from the Vingroup stocks, causing the VN-Index to continue fluctuating within a narrow range.

In the final trading session of the week, increased profit-taking pressure on stocks that had risen sharply earlier caused the VN-Index to fall back to 1,870 points. Foreign investors were net sellers last week, with a total value of VND 2,994 billion in the first four trading sessions, an increase of over VND 2,010 billion compared to the same period the previous week.

In the morning's trading session, the VN-Index opened up 8 points thanks to strong demand from large-cap stocks of the Vingroup. However, the gains gradually weakened as selling pressure increased on stocks that had seen strong gains in previous sessions, such as VNM, VCB, HDB, and BSR, causing the VN-Index to quickly fall below the reference level.

The highlight of the morning session was the continued strong upward trend of several stocks in the securities sector, such as VCI, SSI, VND, HCM, and VIX. The VN-Index remained around the reference level until the end of the morning session, with significantly reduced liquidity compared to the previous session, reflecting market hesitation.

Entering the afternoon trading session, the VN-Index continued its downward trend, with stocks such as VCB, BID, BSR, GAS, and GVR experiencing sharp corrections after a series of gains in previous weeks. In the last 30 minutes and during the ATC session, profit-taking pressure caused the VN-Index to fall to around 1,870 points. Notably, foreign investors net sold over VND 200.15 billion, primarily selling VCB, VHM, and CTG.

At the close of last week's trading session, the VN-Index closed at 1,870.79 points, down 11.94 points, or 0.63%. For the week, the VN-Index decreased by 8.34 points (-0.44%) compared to the previous week.

The VN-Index closed with a red candlestick, correcting downwards and falling below 1,875 points under increased profit-taking pressure on large-cap stocks. On the daily chart, both RSI and MACD indicators continue to trend downwards, indicating that the correction pressure is ongoing and shows no sign of stopping. Therefore, there is a high probability that sideways consolidation will continue in the next session, with the nearest support level around 1,840 points, equivalent to the MA20 line.

On the hourly chart, the VN-Index retreated to the lower boundary of the Bollinger Band with increased selling pressure towards the end of the afternoon session, so further consolidation may occur before a new trend emerges. The nearest short-term support for the VN-Index is the old bottom around 1,850 points.

Last week's trading session saw increased profit-taking pressure from large-cap stocks, causing the VN-Index to fluctuate around 1,875 points. Simultaneously, cash flows continued to be clearly differentiated among stocks within the same sector, with a large concentration on stocks with unique stories and positive Q4 earnings. Given the current market developments, VCBS recommends investors closely monitor market developments in the coming sessions, exercise greater caution when opening new positions, and prioritize taking advantage of intraday fluctuations for short-term swing trading of stocks already in their portfolios.