Three scenarios put forward for national economy in 2023

Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 5.34% this year under the first scenario set out by the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM).

The institute announced a report on the domestic economy in the first half of this year, and prospects for the second at a workshop in Hanoi on July 10, where its three scenarios on the national economy were made public.  

The first assumes the global economic development matches assessments of international organisations and Vietnam, under which the country’s export is projected to slide 5.64%, and its consumer price index (CPI) will rise 3.43%, with a trade surplus of 9.1 billion USD.

Under the second, given monetary and fiscal easing in Vietnam, the GDP growth is set at 5.72%, export is expected to decrease 3.66%, and the CPI is forecast to expand 3.87%, with a trade surplus of 10.3 billion USD.

 

In the last where the global economy will see positive changes, and Vietnam will take drastic actions in reform and management, the GDP is hoped to grow 6.46%, export will drop only 2.17%, the CPI will go up 4.39%, and the trade surplus will stand at 6.8 billion USD.

According to the institute’s report, the first six months have given Vietnam an idea of socio-economic requirements for the second half as well as the coming years.

Head of the CIEM's General Research Department Nguyen Anh Duong called difficulties in the first two quarters “positive pressure” for the Government, ministries, agencies and localities to take more drastic actions in management and reform in the time ahead.

CIEM Director Tran Thi Hong Minh said since the beginning of this year, the Government has paid attention to perfecting institutions and policies, tapping investment resources for the national economy, and improving the business environment.

 

Despite the gap with the set target, the economic growth has seen improvements between quarters, with 3.28% in the first and 4.14 in the second, she said, adding that the growth in H1 reached 3.72%.

In the six months, the total social investment exceeded 1.35 quadrillion VND (57.05 billion USD), up 4.7% year-on-year. As of June 30, the disbursement rate of public investment reached 30.5% of the target assigned by the Prime Minister, higher than the 27.7% recorded in the same period last year. The country also attracted 13.43 billion USD in foreign direct investment (FDI), down 4.35%, while FDI disbursement went up 0.5%.

The total export value in the reviewed period was estimated at 164.5 billion USD, down 12.1%, and import was 152.2 billion USD, down 18.2%, resulting in a trade surplus of over 12.2 billion USD.

Participants at the workshop looked into factors that may cause difficulties to the national socio-economic development in the remaining months, and proposed orientations and policy solutions./.