Viet Nam’s seafood exports expected to reach 9.2 billion USD in 2025

This includes shrimp exports forecast at 3.6–3.8 billion USD, tra fish at 1.8 billion USD, tuna at 850–900 million USD, and other seafood products nearing 3 billion USD.

VASEP reported on August 6 that the country’s seafood industry experienced a strong recovery in the first half of 2025, with export value hitting 5.25 billion USD, up 19.5% year-on-year. Total seafood output reached around 4.5 million tonnes (up 3.1%), including 1.97 million tonnes from capture fisheries and 2.57 million tonnes from aquaculture.

In July alone, seafood exports were valued at approximately 971 million USD, a 6.1% increase year-on-year. Cumulatively, exports reached 6.22 billion USD over the first seven months of the year, up 17.2% over the same period last year.

Shrimp remained the leading export product, generating 2.49 billion USD in the seven-month period, a 23.6% year-on-year increase. However, the US market, a major destination, is facing significant challenges due to new tariff policies, causing a slowdown in orders.

If the 20% countervailing duty imposed by the US takes effect, Vietnamese shrimp could lose its competitive edge against other countries such as Ecuador, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Moreover, if the US maintains its 33.29% anti-dumping duty, Vietnamese shrimp may be shut out of the market entirely.

Forecasts suggest that Viet Nam’s shrimp exports in 2025 could reach 3.6–3.8 billion USD, provided that exporters continue to effectively penetrate Asian, EU, and CPTPP member markets.

Viet Nam’s seafood export activity is expected to face both favourable conditions and significant obstacles in the final months of 2025. Major challenges include the 20% reciprocal duty from the US (effective from August 7) on imports from Viet Nam, including seafood. This is likely to impact not only shrimp but also tra fish and tuna exports. Other complications include geopolitical tensions and disruptions in global supply chains.

Despite this, opportunities remain promising. There is strong potential for growth in value-added processed products thanks to the recovery of key markets such as China, ASEAN, and Japan; easing of technical barriers in EU countries; and continued tariff advantages under FTAs like EVFTA, CPTPP, and UKVFTA compared to competing countries.

If favourable conditions persist across major markets, the total seafood export value for 2025 could reach around 9–9.2 billion USD, down nearly 10% compared to 2024.

To achieve these targets, businesses must proactively adapt to changes, diversify markets, improve processing capabilities and product quality, and invest in stable raw material zones.

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