Coffee prices have increased by over 50% on average this year, enabling the export revenue to potentially surpass 5 billion USD for the first time.
Do Ha Nam, Vice President of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA) and Chairman and CEO of Intimex Group, considered 2024 as a special year for the coffee industry as Vietnamese coffee prices have reached the world's highest for the first time. The export price of Robusta, accounting for some 97% of the coffee output in the country - the world's biggest Robusta producer, is higher than that of Arabica, which is unprecedented.
Since the beginning of the year, Vietnam's coffee export prices have risen continuously.
In January, the price was just over 3,000 USD per tonne, but it surged to 5,855 per tonne in October. It shot up over 90% within just 10 months.
Export prices during the first 11 months of 2024 averaged 4,037 USD per tonne, up 56.9% compared to the same period in 2023, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.
Between January and November, Vietnam shipped nearly 1.2 million tonnes abroad, with a revenue of 4.84 billion USD. Although this represented a 15.4% decrease in volume, the value still went up by 32.8% year-on-year.
Germany, Italy, and Spain are the three largest markets for Vietnamese coffee. Exports grew in all the top 15 markets, with the most significant increases seen in Malaysia and the Philippines – both more than doubling.
Vietnam has just entered the 2024 - 2025 coffee crop year. Looking back on the 2023 - 2024 crop year, coffee exports achieved a new milestone. Despite a more than 12% decline in the export volume to 1.46 million tonnes, the revenue soared by over 33% to reach 5.43 billion USD, the highest revenue recorded in a single crop year and marking the first time exports exceeded 5 billion USD in a crop year.
VICOFA said the new harvest season began in November, with this season's production expected to reach around 1.6 million tonnes. Domestic coffee consumption in Vietnam is forecast to be between 270,000 and 300,000 tonnes. The rise in domestic demand, coupled with lower production, could significantly impact the supply of raw materials for export.
Meanwhile, experts noted that Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, already finished its harvest season, and its growers are currently reluctant to sell as they wait to see the next crop's output. Therefore, the global coffee market from now through the first quarter of 2025 will depend on coffee-producing countries in the northern hemisphere, especially Vietnam.
As a result, though the harvest season is ongoing, domestic coffee prices are still on an upward trend. Besides, farmers in the Central Highlands, the coffee farming hub of Vietnam, are not rushing to sell due to good revenues from other high-priced farm produce like durian and pepper.
VICOFA are confident in many advantages for Vietnam's coffee exports thanks to increased supply from the new harvest season 2024 - 2025 and high export prices. This year's export revenue is predicted to set a new record of 5.5 billion USD./.
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