VN-Index might continue its upward sideways trend

Global outlook

Top tech stocks like Nvidia, Tesla continue to push Nasdaq above 20k points, but the index retreated in the session on 12/12. The CPI for November matched the forecast; accordingly, the index increased 0.3% mom in November and increased 2.7% yoy, although PPI increased 0.4%, higher than the forecast of 0.2%.

US stock indexes decreased by an average of 0.5%, EU600 -0.3%, Nikkei 225 1.3%; CSI 300 -1.0%.
Commodity index increased by 2.5%, with the main increase in prices of oil 4.4%, natural gas 12.3%, gold 1.9%.

The Fedwatch tool shows a 95% probability that the FED will cut interest rates by 0.25% at the December meeting this week, with inflation expectations not high enough for the FED to stop cutting interest rates.

The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the third consecutive time by 0.25% to 3% at its December policy meeting. The ECB is focusing on boosting growth instead of controlling inflation around the 2% target due to concerns about political instability and trade pressure from President-elect Donald Trump. The ECB will rely on the latest economic data to decide at each meeting. Investors expect the organization to cut another 0.25% at the January 2025 meeting and forecast interest rates at 1.75% in the summer of 2015, 2% lower than the FED.

Meanwhile, China industrial production index, retail sales, unemployment rate; UK, EU, US PMI; Canada, UK CPI; FED, BoJ and BOE policy meetings; BPOC 1Y and 5Y interest rates; US final jobless claims; and GDP are the information to watch this week.

VN-Index may go sideways

VN-Index decreased 0.6% after 2 weeks of increase with liquidity decreasing 12% compared to last week. The market was strongly differentiated, with 9/19 sectors decreasing. Foreign investors net sold 46 million USD compared to net selling of 7 million USD last week.

At the regular Government meeting in December 2024, the Prime Minister requested to strive for GDP growth of over 7% in 2014 and 8% in 2025 to create momentum for the 2026-2030 period of double-digit growth. The government focuses on streamlining the apparatus towards reducing at least 15% of internal connections and implementing policies to "untie" production activities, with the highest priority being to promote growth, improve labor productivity, and enhance national status. The drastic moves from the entire political system bring expectations of a second innovation towards liberating and mobilizing resources to focus on socio-economic development.

VN-Index moved sideways in yesterday's session and closed at 1,263.79 points, only up 1 point. The number of decreasing stocks was greater than the number of increasing ones; 11/18 sectors increased, showing that cash flow is differentiated. The tourism and entertainment industry led the increase yesterday, while the insurance industry fell the most.

VN-Index rose 1.22 points, closing at 1263.79 points. HNX-Index rose 0.04 points, closing at 227.04 points.  Stocks pulled the index up, including BID (0.49), HVN (0.47), VNM (0.41), VHM (0.30), FPT (0.14). Meanwhle, stocks pulled the index down, including HPG (-0.31), GVR (-0.19), MBB (-0.19), GAS (-0.17), BVH (-0.16).

The matched trade value of VN-Index reached VND 9,199 billion, decreased -2.54% compared to the previous session. The total transaction value reached VND 12,792 billion. The trading range is 8.45 points. The market had 158 gainers, 82 remaining unchanged, 214 losers. Foreign investors' net selling value: VND -28.92 billion on HOSE, including VCB (VND -54.14 billion), HPG (VND -37.05 billion), CMG (VND -32.14 billion), VPB (VND -20.78 billion), EIB (VND -20.60 billion). Foreign investors were net sellers on HNX with the value of VND -27.90 billion.

In BSC’s opinion, VN-Index may continue to struggle in the 1,260 - 1,265 range in the short term. However, in bad cases, it can only retreat to the 1,240 threshold; investors should trade carefully.