Market pricing suggests that there is little chance of the ECB cutting rates again. But many analysts think it is too soon to come to this conclusion as two specific...
A number of G10 central banks have become more cautious about policy easing. Here we’d include the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia. But...
While most G10 central banks remain in easing mode, it is clear that the path to lower rates is becoming a little trickier.
It appears a well-accepted fact that the plunge in the US dollar earlier this year came about because global investors in US assets decided to increase their hedge...
With euro zone inflation seemingly stable at the 2% target and the main policy rate also at 2%, if not most, ECB members seem to think that policy is in a pretty neutral...
The US tariffs’ impact on eurozone growth could be bigger than the models might suggest that inflation will be lower, and that the ECB will be pushed into at least one...
The pound (GBP) has been on a good run since the debacle of the infamous mini-budget of September 2022 which saw the pound fall close to parity against the dollar. It...
The euro has risen by 14% against the US dollar so far this year. That’s a big rise and, at a time when the concerns of the ECB seem to be shifting from inflation to...
The demise of the US dollar this year, both in terms of its value and its perceived global status has prompted ECB President Christine Lagarde to declare that the euro...
The US dollar’s seemingly inexorable slide looks set to continue. The key in the shortterm is whether important psychological levels can be broken, such as 1.15...
The ECB cut rates again last week; its eight such reduction in a row. In all, the deposit rate has been halved from 4% to 2% through this cycle. It is now at a level...
The US dollar is still on the backfoot and we see little sign that this is going to change anytime soon. Many analysts continue to target the two 25s, meaning 1.25 for...
Many analysts are expecting the ECB to cut the key policy rate another 25-bps this Thursday. How will this action impact the euro?
The tilt towards easier policy remains very much in place across central banks outside the US. The outlook for Fed policy is more opaque but it does appear that...
The imposition of US tariffs poses enormous challenges for central banks, not least the Fed. Many analysts believe that the Fed will keep its powder dry but other...
For the first time in a very long while, it has been European bond markets that have been the driving force globally, not treasuries.
The FED seems set to stay on hold for the foreseeable future but most other G10 central banks should continue to ease.
A degree of divergence seems likely to creep into G10 monetary policy as the Fed pauses while those that have been easing carry on, and those that have not started to...
The euro zone economy is generally expected to grow at a faster pace in 2025 than we saw in 2024. However, this view entails lots of risks, which is one reason why the...
VN-Index is in a sideways up accumulation trend. Trading with thin profit margins continues to be recommended until the new trend is confirmed.
The political crisis in France demonstrates that the euro zone is at an important crossroads.
The Stanrdard Bank currently pitches 2025 growth at 1.0%, which is short of the 1.3% the ECB anticipates and the 1.2% that forms the median projection of analysts...
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