Credit risks expected to lower in 2H2026

Credit Risk Expected to Stabilize

According to the results of the credit trend survey of credit institutions—conducted in June with the participation of CIs and foreign bank branches, achieving a response rate of 99.1%—participating units stated that credit risk for loans was perceived to have "increased slightly" in the first 6 months of 2026, but is expected to stabilize in the last 6 months of 2026. CIs also forecast that overall risk will "increase" for the full year of 2026.

By loan purpose, CIs forecast that credit risk in 2026 will "increase" in 11 out of 15 sectors, with Real Estate Investment and Business evaluated as having the highest increase in risk level, followed by Import-Export Business, Construction, Securities Investment and Business, Credit Card Loans, Financial, Banking and Insurance Business, Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Development, House Purchasing, Renting, and Lease-purchasing; house construction and repair, Investment in Transportation and Warehousing (including logistics services), Tourism Investment and Business, and Processing and Manufacturing.

Credit institutions expect credit risk to stabilize in the last 6 months of 2026. (Illustration photo: Quoc Tuan)

Assessing 2027, CIs forecast that the risk landscape will continue to "increase slightly" compared to 2026.

Credit Demand Continues to Improve

According to CIs' assessments, the overall credit demand of customers in the first 6 months of 2026 was perceived to continue improving, though it remained lower than the expectations recorded in the previous survey period. In the last 6 months of 2026, CIs expect overall customer credit demand to improve further compared to the first 6 months, concentrating on the corporate customer group and loan demands from the processing and manufacturing sector.

However, in this survey, CIs adjusted and narrowed their expectations regarding the growth level of customer credit demand in 2026 compared to 2025 toward a more cautious direction across all surveyed sectors. Among the surveyed loan demands, demand for loans serving industrial development and construction continues to be expected to increase most positively, followed by trade and services, loans for living and consumption, green credit, loans for agricultural, forestry, and fisheries development, and high-tech application investments. Furthermore, in 2026, the loan demand of the corporate customer group is forecast to increase higher than that of individual customers, demand for loans in VND will be higher than in foreign currencies, and demand for short-term loans will be equivalent to medium and long-term loans.

CIs continue to forecast that macro factors and interest rates—such as economic growth prospects, changes in investment demand for production and business, or the changing trend of CIs' lending interest rates—will positively influence the increase in credit demand from corporate customers in the last 6 months and the whole year of 2026. Besides these factors, CIs also expect positive impacts from CIs' service quality, improvements in loan products, new investment opportunities, and changes in import-export activities stemming from the signing and implementation of bilateral or multilateral trade agreements, thereby helping to boost corporate customers' demand for loans in 2026. For the individual customer group, in addition to the macro factors and interest rates mentioned above, tax and incentive policies, alongside new management policies for the real estate market, are forecast to have a major impact on the increase in loan demand from this group in the last 6 months and the whole year of 2026.

Capital Optimization Capacity for the Economy

Regarding readiness to meet capital demand for the economy, in the first 6 months of 2026, CIs continued to meet the overall loan demand of customers at a high level, with 90.0% of CIs stating they met 75% or more of loan demands, higher than the 86.5% rate in the last 6 months of 2025 and 89.9% in the first 6 months of 2025.

For the group of systematically important commercial banks, the rate of meeting 75% or more of loan demands continued to be 100%. The factors causing CIs to meet less than 75% of customer loan demands in the first 6 months of 2026 were identified by CIs as "Risk appetite of the unit," "Limits on the loan-to-deposit ratio," "Economic outlook," "Government's orientation/management policies for economic sectors," and "SBV's requirements on capital safety." These factors are basically identical to those in the last 6 months of 2025, but in this survey period, the "Economic outlook" factor was added by CIs to the group of factors heavily affecting the degree to which customer credit demand is met.

It is worth noting that some of the factors pointed out by CIs as impacting their ability to meet loan demands have been and are being resolved by management authorities. For instance, regarding the "Limits on the loan-to-deposit ratio," the State Bank of Vietnam issued Circular 25, which raises the maximum ratio of short-term funds used for medium and long-term loans by banks and foreign bank branches from the current 30% to 40%. The circular, taking effect on July 1, 2026, is expected to resolve this bottleneck.

Additionally, the "economic outlook" factor is being assessed positively, with international institutions upwardly revising Vietnam's GDP growth, driven by the favorable growth momentum of the first half of the year. Vietnam's manufacturing PMI maintained a level above 50 points in June as new order volumes continued to rise and inflationary pressures eased alongside coordinated monetary and fiscal policies—particularly supportive fiscal policy that promotes public investment.

Credit Standards: Unchanged or Slightly Eased

In the first 6 months of 2026, the majority of CIs continued the trend of keeping credit standards "unchanged" or "slightly easing" them, focusing on "slightly easing" for individual customers rather than for enterprises and prioritized sectors such as Green Credit, Loans for high-tech application investments, Supporting industry investments, Agricultural, forestry, and fisheries development, and Import-export business, along with sectors like Credit card loans, Processing and manufacturing, House purchasing, renting, and lease-purchasing, and Investment in transportation and warehousing (including logistics services). Meanwhile, they continued to "tighten" credit standards for sectors including Securities investment and business, Real estate investment and business, Financial, banking and insurance business, Tourism investment and business, Construction, and Electricity production and distribution.

"A favorable economic outlook" driven by public investment is one of the primary grounds for the trend of "slightly easing" credit standards in 2026. (Illustration photo)

Moving into the last 6 months of 2026, CIs expect to keep credit standards "unchanged" for the individual customer group and "slightly tighten" them for corporate customers; "slightly ease" credit standards for most prioritized sectors and industries but tend to "slightly tighten" credit standards for other sectors (Securities investment and business, Real estate investment and business, Financial, banking and insurance business, Tourism investment and business, Construction, etc.). CIs stated they have and will continue the trend of keeping "unchanged" or "easing" credit standards for Short-term loans and VND loans, while "slightly tightening" credit standards for Medium and long-term loans and Foreign currency loans.

According to CIs, the primary basis for the trend of "slightly easing" credit standards in 2026 is based on the evaluation of a "Favorable macroeconomic outlook" and the positive impacts of "Government orientation/management policies for economic sector development" and "Government/SBV credit orientation/management policies". Additionally, in this survey period, CIs noted that "Improved financial capacity of the unit" was also one of the reasons for choosing to "ease" credit standards, whereas the factor causing some CIs to choose to "tighten" credit standards in 2026 was the increasing "level of market risk", which includes "Customer risk" and "Industry risk."

Continuing the slight easing trend from the last 6 months of 2025, in the first 6 months of 2026, CIs stated they continued to "ease" overall lending terms and conditions for corporate customers (expecting to "slightly tighten" for securities and real estate investment loans, while "slightly easing" for production and business loans), whereas they tended to "slightly tighten" for individual customers (applying to loans for living expenses, purchasing residential real estate, and credit card usage).

In the last 6 months of 2026, overall lending terms and conditions for corporate customers are expected to be slightly tightened for both customer groups. Looking specifically at the group of systematically important banks, overall lending terms and conditions for corporate customers were perceived to have been "slightly eased" over the past 6 months and are expected to continue to be "eased" in the last 6 months of 2026, while they were perceived to have been "slightly tightened" for individual customers over the past 6 months and are expected to continue to be "slightly tightened" in the last 6 months of 2026.

Regarding drivers of credit growth, "Construction," "Processing and manufacturing," "Wholesale and retail," and "Food and beverage production" are the 04 economic sectors selected by the most CIs as credit growth drivers in the first 6 months of 2026 and expected for the 2026–2027 period.