Will KBC’s ambition become a reality?

A Year of Profit Decline 

In 2024, the industrial real estate sector—KBC’s core industry—continued to align with the trend of attracting FDI into Vietnam. While several industrial real estate firms reported positive earnings thanks to rental income from available land banks, new leasing contracts, and financial or other income, KBC was one of the few major industrial park developers that experienced a significant profit decline.

By the end of 2024, KBC only achieved 31% of its revenue target (VND 9,000 billion) and nearly 12% of its net profit target (VND 4,000 billion). The company’s key projects—such as Nam Son Hap Linh Industrial Park, Trang Due 3 Industrial Park, Trang Cat Urban Area, and Phuc Ninh Urban Area—faced delays in obtaining necessary legal approvals, significantly impacting its ability to meet financial targets.

Additionally, compared to its strong profit growth in 2023, the decline in 2024 was further influenced by the company’s revenue recognition from residential real estate, particularly from the handover of units in the social housing projects in Nenh and Trang Due. However, these projects had lower profit margins and lacked additional income streams.

KBC’s profit decline underscores a common challenge faced by industrial real estate companies: dependence on legal approvals. Firms in the sector continue to push for streamlined procedures to remove bottlenecks, meet market demand, and attract investment.

The Source of KBC’s High Ambitions

KBC is set to hold an extraordinary general meeting of shareholders (EGM) on March 6, 2025, where key agenda items will include the 2025 business plan, bond listing, and the selection of an auditing firm. The company plans to present shareholders with ambitious financial targets: a consolidated revenue goal of VND 10,000 billion and a net profit target of VND 3,200 billion—representing 3x and 7x growth compared to 2024 results, respectively.

Several favorable factors support these ambitious targets. The company expects legal obstacles to be resolved, enabling faster project handovers and business expansion.

Specifically, KBC expects positive legal developments for its industrial parks in early 2025. Nam Son Hap Linh Industrial Park and Hung Yen Industrial Cluster have previously signed memoranda of understanding (MOUs) and deposit agreements for large leasing areas. This company also intends to commercialize the Trang Cat Urban Area, which has already completed land clearance and paid land-use fees and is actively investing in infrastructure. In addition, the Loc Giang Industrial Park in Long An, which covers 466 hectares, has completed 110 hectares of land compensation and is working on infrastructural construction.

Regarding legal approvals, key projects such as Trang Due 3 Industrial Park (652.7 hectares), Trang Cat Urban and Service Area (nearly 585 hectares) in Hai Phong, and Kim Thanh 2 Industrial Park Phase 1 (235 hectares) in Hai Duong received official investment policy approvals in early 2025.

Macro & Market Perspectives

According to Dragon Capital—a major KBC shareholder—Vietnam’s economy is poised for growth in 2025, with positive outlooks for both residential and industrial real estate. KBC is highlighted as one of the largest private industrial park developers in Vietnam, with a land bank exceeding 6,000 hectares nationwide. Kinh Bac City has played a crucial role in attracting major manufacturers, including LG Electronics, Qualcomm, Foxconn, Oppo, and Apple’s suppliers Luxshare and Goertek.

Dragon Capital's VEIL fund forecasts a dramatic comeback for KBC, with net profit likely to increase by more than 200% in 2025 after falling 79% in 2024. On a more conservative note, MBS expects KBC's net profit to reach VND 881 billion in 2025 (20% YoY) and VND 1,148 billion in 2026 (30% YoY), thanks to increased land handovers and considerable reductions in borrowing costs following a private placement capital raising.

On the market front, KBC and HDB (linked to billionaire Nguyen Thi Phuong Thao) have gained attention due to their investment ties with the Trump administration. KBC previously signed an agreement with the Trump Organization for a real estate development in Hung Yen before Donald Trump’s re-election campaign. Meanwhile, Nguyen Thi Phuong Thao met with the U.S. President in late 2024, and HDBank is collaborating on $48 billion worth of contracts with major U.S. corporations, with negotiations underway to expand the deal to $64 billion, potentially creating 500,000 jobs in the U.S.

With FDI expected to continue flowing into Vietnam, strategic partnerships could serve as a major catalyst for investment growth, boosting revenue and profits for businesses while bringing technology and employment opportunities to the country. Given these factors, investors are anticipating a substantial yet stable long-term expansion for KBC, reinforcing the stock’s potential for growth.