Holding or selling fertilizer and oil & gas stocks?

From now until the end of 2026, does this sector still have medium-term upside? Should investors sell or hold these stocks?

In the trading session on March 17, stocks such as BSR, PVD, DCM, DPM, PLX, and GAS continued to decline sharply. Notably, BSR hit the floor with more than 14 million shares queued for sale, PVD approached its floor price, and DPM also fell to its floor with a trading volume exceeding one million shares. With consecutive sharp and limit-down declines, this group dragged the VN-Index down, trading close to the 1,700-point level. Why did these stocks surge so rapidly and then fall just as quickly?

According to analysis by MB Securities (MBS), global oil prices have shown signs of cooling after a sharp rally driven by tensions in the Middle East. In early March, oil prices climbed above $100 per barrel, but by mid-March, they corrected to around $90–96 per barrel.

At the same time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that member countries had agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves to address supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts. From March 16, Japan also began releasing oil from its strategic reserves. In addition, reports that oil tankers from Asian and European countries were allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz have helped ease concerns over global supply disruptions.

However, forecasts suggest that if the Middle East conflict subsides, oil prices could retreat to the $80–90 per barrel range in the near term, returning to a more balanced level rather than remaining overheated. Many stocks in this sector had previously risen by over 20% to more than 30%, so a correction following the drop in oil prices was inevitable.

Many investors bought into these stocks near their peak. Will there be renewed upside?

According to MBS analysts, oil and gas and fertilizer stocks are not viewed favorably in the short term, and are likely to return to price levels seen at the beginning of the year. However, in the long term, these stocks still offer opportunities for investors who maintain their positions.

For oilfield service companies such as PVD and PVS, prospects are more positive, as they are expected to benefit from increased exploration and production activity while oil prices remain relatively high compared to 2025. Meanwhile, downstream fuel distributors such as PLX and BSR may not benefit to the same extent, as they are affected by volatile input costs and domestic price controls. As a result, BSR and PLX stocks, after a strong rally, are now entering a correction phase amid global oil price fluctuations.

According to SSI Securities, fertilizer companies in the medium term remain largely state-owned enterprises with stable profitability and growth momentum. However, if the Middle East conflict persists, these companies may face risks of input shortages. Rising oil prices could also negatively impact profit margins due to higher input costs.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade stated that current fuel reserves are sufficient to meet demand through the end of March 2026. As of the end of 2025, Vietnam maintained approximately 1.7 million cubic meters of inventory and imported 2.2 million tons of fuel in the first two months of 2026, up 43% year-on-year.

Therefore, investors holding oil and gas and fertilizer stocks should closely monitor market developments and government macro policies on fuel management before deciding whether to hold or sell their positions.