Lending ceiling raised to 40%: A boost for the stock market?

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has officially issued Circular No. 25/2026/TT-NHNN, amending and supplementing a number of articles of Circular 22/2019/TT-NHNN. This amendment raises the maximum ratio of short-term funds used for medium- and long-term loans from 30% to 40% in banking operations, effective from July 1, 2026. This move is drawing significant attention from the investment community.

The second quarter of 2026 marks an important turning point for Vietnam's banking industry, as the growth model based on scale expansion gradually gives way to one based on asset quality and governance capacity.

Loosening Limits, Supporting Growth

The Circular was developed based on the conclusions and Resolutions of the Central Committee and the Government regarding the socio-economic development plan for the 2026-2030 period, with the overarching goal of promoting double-digit economic growth.

According to Mr. Nguyen Minh Tuan, CEO of AFA Capital, Vietnam is entering a new development cycle with an immense demand for capital. Calculations show that the total investment capital requirement for the 2026-2030 period could reach around 38.5 quadrillion VND. Meanwhile, the state budget only meets about 20%, and the remainder must come from the private sector, FDI, and particularly the banking credit system.

“To grow strongly, there must be capital. In the context where the capital market—including the stock and bond markets—is not yet sufficient to provide the necessary long-term capital for the economy, the banking system must still play the anchor role.

In practice, raising the ceiling from 30% to 40% will create more headroom for commercial banks to expand medium- and long-term lending. This is particularly crucial when capital demand for infrastructure, industrial, energy, and real estate projects is rising sharply.

Furthermore, banking operations inherently involve maturity transformation—that is, mobilizing short-term funds and lending long-term. If risk management is handled well, expanding this margin will help banks increase profits through interest rate differentials,” Mr. Tuan analyzed.

In addition to raising the ratio of short-term funds for medium- and long-term loans, the Circular also adjusts the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) in a more flexible direction. This is considered an important step to increase agility in monetary policy management. During periods when system liquidity faces pressure or public investment disbursement is slow, idle funds from the State Treasury can serve as a liquidity buffer to support the banking system.

How Will the Stock Market Respond?

From an investment perspective, the CEO of AFA Capital assesses this as positive news, first and foremost for banking stocks. When the headroom for medium- and long-term lending is expanded, banks will have more opportunities to grow credit, improve their Net Interest Margin (NIM), and enhance business efficiency.

In the upcoming trading week, the market is forecasted to experience high volatility after the VN-Index failed to surpass its short-term peak and strong selling pressure emerged during this week's final session.

Beyond the banking sector, liquidity in the money market and the capital market are always closely linked. If banking liquidity improves and interest rate pressures ease, cash flow into the stock market will also have a chance to receive support.

The expert pointed out that since the beginning of the year, stock market liquidity has decreased significantly compared to previous years, reflecting general liquidity pressures across the economy. Therefore, loosening capital limits can contribute to improving the cash flow environment for the asset market.

With the policy approved, besides the banking group, sectors with medium- and long-term capital demands will also benefit, such as: infrastructure construction; processing and manufacturing industries; energy and electricity; and real estate.

However, it is also worth noting that a significant portion of the new capital flow might continue to stream into real estate due to the sector's inherent reliance on long-term funding sources. This is an area investors need to monitor closely. If capital is efficiently allocated to manufacturing, infrastructure, and energy sectors, the impact on the economy will be highly positive. But if capital becomes overly concentrated in real estate, risks could escalate.

Despite the positive assessment of the policy direction, Mr. Nguyen Minh Tuan noted that raising the ratio of short-term funds for medium- and long-term loans means the banking system is accepting a higher level of liquidity risk. As the maturity gap between mobilized funds and loans widens, the system's ability to withstand liquidity shocks will decrease. “However, the current context is different from the 2011 period. The banking system has made long strides in risk management, liquidity control, and credit oversight according to international standards.”

Thus, the most important takeaway from this policy is not merely the adjustment of a technical ratio, but rather a signal showing that monetary policy remains oriented toward supporting growth. Therefore, investors need to monitor the relationship between the money market, interest rates, and the capital market to make appropriate investment decisions.