Vietnam’s top firms set bold profit targets for 2026

Despite a challenging business environment shaped by global macro volatility, geopolitical tensions, inflation risks, and supply chain pressures as conflicts escalate, most companies remain optimistic about their 2026 outlook.

Across these sectors, profit growth targets typically range from 10% to 30% year-on-year. Notably, even companies in oil & gas and fertilizers—traditionally conservative in planning—have raised their 2026 profit targets above 2025 levels, according to SSI Research.

A review of business plans presented during this year’s annual general meetings, particularly in financial sectors, clearly reflects this trend.

Banks push for capital expansion

In banking, the Big 4 stand out, with Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (Vietcombank, HOSE: VCB) maintaining its long-held top profit position. This year, it surprised the market with plans to expand operations into new special economic zones, including a proposal to establish a wholly domestic commercial bank within Vietnam’s International Financial Centre (IFC). The move aims to leverage special mechanisms to serve institutional clients and large FDI flows while continuing its international expansion strategy. Vietcombank also plans to maintain high stock dividend payouts from retained earnings to reinforce its leading capital position.

Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade (VietinBank, HOSE: CTG) has similar IFC ambitions, alongside plans to raise charter capital to over VND 105 trillion, primarily through stock dividends from retained earnings.

Among private banks, Military Bank (MBBank, HOSE: MBB), part of the “Big 51,” is positioning itself as a financial conglomerate. It has revealed plans to enter gold trading and build infrastructure to participate in digital asset markets once the regulatory framework is complete. Subsidiaries such as MBS, MBCapital, and MB Ageas Life are expected to contribute 13% of total group profits. MBBank also plans to raise charter capital to VND 102.7 trillion and pay a 25% dividend (10% cash, 15% stock), alongside ESOP issuance.

VPBank (HOSE: VPB) aims to become the first Vietnamese bank to reach VND 100 trillion in charter capital through issuing over 2 billion shares. It also commits to maintaining a 5% annual cash dividend over five years, equivalent to nearly VND 4 trillion this year. Its strategy focuses on optimizing ecosystem components like VPBankS and reviving FE Credit, targeting profits above VND 1 trillion.

Techcombank (HOSE: TCB) is shifting toward wealth management and next-generation clients, including financial education programs for heirs of priority customers. The bank is also integrating AI into credit approval processes and digital personalization, while continuing to issue convertible and green bonds to diversify long-term capital.

Saigon-Hanoi Bank (HOSE: SHB) has approved plans to issue 750 million shares, including rights offerings and private placements. It is also completing the divestment of SHB Finance to a Thai partner to generate surplus capital, supporting its ambition to become a leading digital bank with strong IT investment.

Securities firms eye strong growth

In securities, SSI plans 2026 revenue of VND 15.66 trillion and pre-tax profit of VND 5.84 trillion, up 19% and 15% respectively.

Ho Chi Minh City Securities (HSC, HCM) targets revenue of VND 6.57 trillion (50%) and pre-tax profit of VND 2.3 trillion (56%). Q1 profit is estimated to rise by 26% year-on-year. The firm also plans to establish a subsidiary with at least VND 800 billion in capital to participate in the IFC and issue up to 492 million shares to expand margin lending and operations.

Vietcap (VCI) aims to maintain a top-4 market share, targeting revenue of VND 6.53 trillion and pre-tax profit of VND 2.3 trillion, up 30% and 41%. It also approved an ESOP issuance of up to 4.6 million shares.

Growth optimism despite headwinds

Despite challenges, corporate leaders remain confident in Vietnam’s ability to navigate headwinds. Ongoing reforms and growth-oriented policies continue to reinforce the country’s image as a long-term investment and reform story, rather than a short-term cyclical opportunity.

Vietnam’s successful passage through FTSE Russell’s interim review aligns with expectations and provides momentum for securities firms’ growth plans. It also creates conditions for capital raising, investment expansion, and improved competitiveness.

SSI Research notes that past market upgrades (Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Romania, Iceland) showed mixed short-term performance, with some initial corrections. However, most delivered 20–50% returns over three years, suggesting upgrades act as medium-term growth catalysts rather than immediate triggers.

Ultimately, market performance remains driven by fundamentals such as macro conditions, earnings growth, and valuations. On these fronts, Vietnam stands out among peers with strong macro stability, a positive earnings outlook, and relatively attractive valuations.

More importantly, beyond short-term price movements, FTSE Russell’s upgrade marks a structural milestone, helping align Vietnam’s capital market infrastructure with international standards. This is expected to enhance credibility and attract stable, long-term foreign capital, supporting sustainable market development.

Following FTSE, MSCI remains the next strategic milestone. Progress will depend on continued reforms in market accessibility, transparency, and operational standards to meet global best practices, SSI Research noted.