Wary of small-cap stock waves

Business Forum Magazine held a discussion on this topic with Mr. Tran Hoang Son, Market Strategy Director at VPBankS Research.

• In the context of a polarized stock market, where liquidity remains low and cash flow has not truly spread, what does investors' capital shift toward small-cap stocks indicate, sir?

The recent ceiling-hitting price increases of several small-cap stocks clearly reflect investors' sentiment of seeking short-term opportunities amid a market that lacks widespread cash flow distribution.

When leading stock groups have undergone a strong upward momentum and begun to show signs of slowing down, a segment of investors tends to pivot toward stocks that have deeply discounted or haven't increased much to seek new profit expectations. This is a fairly common reaction of short-term cash flow, but it does not yet mean that a new bull cycle for the small-cap group has formed.

Since the beginning of 2026, the small-cap group has not aligned with the VN-Index. Most small-caps have moved sideways or declined on low liquidity, while the market's upward momentum has been primarily driven by large-caps. Therefore, the recent ceiling-hitting sessions in certain small-cap tickers need to be evaluated with caution.

This performance also partly reflects a current market issue: the leading driving force is showing signs of weakening. When the stock groups acting as market anchors experience corrections but cash flow fails to find a strong enough replacement group, the market easily falls into a state of high polarization.

• Could you point out some small-cap stocks that are strongly attracting speculative cash flow? What criteria should investors apply to screen and select suitable opportunities?

In recent sessions, several small-cap stocks have recorded sharp price gains, such as HQC, THD, TDH, VNE, JVC, etc. However, it is important to recognize that the price improvement in this group is currently concentrated in individual tickers and has not formed a broad trend.

A common characteristic of stocks attracting speculative cash flow at the moment is that they usually emerge after a long period of accumulation or sharp correction, where the price floor has been deeply discounted. When liquidity suddenly improves, short-term buying demand can generate strong upward surges. However, these fluctuations come with high risks.

In my opinion, investors should not rely solely on the ceiling-price factor to select stocks, but need to simultaneously evaluate several key criteria:

First, liquidity and cash flow quality: A rising stock price must be accompanied by a clear improvement in trading volume, indicating the actual participation of new cash flow rather than just fluctuations caused by limited supply.

Second, accumulation base and technical trends: Stocks that have accumulated long enough, maintained a tight price base, and broken through important resistance zones with increasing liquidity tend to sustain their trends better than tickers that spike abruptly after a deep decline phase.

Third, fundamental factors: It is essential to consider the fundamentals of the businesses, such as financial health, business results, or factors that can create longer-term momentum for the stock price. Within the small-cap group, the divergence in corporate quality is massive, so the risk of picking the wrong ticker is much higher than in the leading stock group.

Fourth, proportion and profit expectation management: For speculative stock groups, an appropriate strategy is usually trading based on cash flow signals, setting stop-loss levels, and avoiding chasing prices when stocks continuously spike.

In the current context, hot surges in small-caps can create short-term trading opportunities, but for it to become a sustainable trend, further confirmation is needed from market-wide liquidity and the return of large institutional cash flow.

• Many small-cap stocks can hit the ceiling consecutively in a short period but also carry the risk of sharp corrections. What are the signs that a ceiling-hitting stock still has room for further growth, sir?

For the small-cap group, consecutive ceiling-hitting gains are often driven by speculative cash flow or short-term supporting information. Due to the characteristics of low liquidity and high volatility, identifying upward momentum or reversal risks requires very close observation of the relationship between price and volume right within the session.

Investors can observe key technical signs to differentiate between "room for further gains" and a "distribution trap." Specifically, a stock that hits the ceiling accompanied by a very large volume of unfilled buy orders at the ceiling price (pending buy orders)—multiple times higher than the average daily trading volume—indicates that buying demand is completely overwhelming.

At the same time, when prices hit the ceiling consecutively but the matched trading volume drops sharply (only tens of thousands to a few hundred thousand units), it proves that current shareholders are determined not to sell, causing supply to dry up temporarily. Even a small buying force is enough to push the price up. If the upward process has not yet seen "record-breaking liquidity explosions" at high price zones, it shows the upward trend is still in its early or mid-wave stage, and big capital has not found a way to exit, meaning the upward trend will remain secured.

Thank you very much, sir!